Military contingency plans

Contingency planning is underway in Zimbabwe to open a northern front in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in the event of the collapse of the Lusaka ceasefire agreement, security sources told IRIN on Thursday. Zimbabwean airforce and Special Air Service (SAS) teams in October reconnoitred the northern region for suitable sites for arms and fuel dumps that would be used in helicopter-borne assaults to leapfrog Zimbabwean forces up to the Congo river. The plan involves outflanking the Uganda-backed Mouvement de Liberation du Congo (MLC) rebels and establishing a frontline that would be held with the assistance of DRC troops. “We are preparing for full peace, but we are also cognizant of the fact that it might breakdown and options need to be given,” a Zimbabwean government official told IRIN. However, the South African daily ‘The Star’ reported on Thursday that President Robert Mugabe has played an increasingly active diplomatic role in trying to ensure the August ceasefire sticks, to enable him to withdraw his troops before parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe next year. “The government would like the ceasefire in the DRC to hold, but to give a timeframe (for withdrawal) is being a bit creative,” the Zimbabwean official said in reference to the newspaper report. “We are getting mixed signals,” a Harare-based security analyst said. “On the surface it appears that Mugabe is keen to end the war, but on the other hand the Zimbabwean and DRC armies have gone into business together and Zimbabwe seems there to stay.” Last year, Zimbabwe’s defence force registered a company, Osleg, to operate alongside Comiex, a private firm owned by the DRC army as part of a gold and diamond mining venture. The Zimbabwe government has encouraged other well-connected businesses such as Congo-Dukwa to trade in the DRC, and successfully lobbied Kinshasa to retain Zimbabwe businessman Billy Rautenbach as chairman of the copper and cobalt parastatal, Gecamines. But profits from Osleg’s involvement in diamond mining around the southern DRC town of Mbuji Mayi have reportedly been disappointing, with the mines requiring significant levels of new investment. Gold and diamond mines in northern DRC are regarded as more viable, and the Congo river offers lucrative trading opportunities. However, the Zimbabwe government official rejected any connection between planned allied military operations in the north, and putative business opportunities. “We have been encouraging our businessmen to invest in the Congo, but I don’t think business considerations would take over from military considerations.” Peace, rather than conflict, he said, would provide the right climate for Zimbabwean business ventures in the DRC.