Opposition struggles to oppose the king

Swaziland's largest opposition group, the People's United Democratic Movement (PUDEMO), is to hold its annual general meeting this weekend - in South Africa. The official reason for crossing the border to the town of Nelspruit rather than meeting on home soil is the fear that "royal hit squads masquerading as police would disrupt the conference", said PUDEMO president Mario Masuku. But another possible interpretation is that the opposition, which has fought a long battle with the royal establishment for legal recognition, may not have quite the support they claim. "There is no charismatic figure in Swaziland to challenge King Mswati. The peasantry is not politically engaged. The political opposition groups promised tens of thousands of members announcing themselves publicly once the parties were unbanned, but this hasn't happened," said political scientist Abel Ndwandwe. The new constitution is ambiguous on the subject of political opposition, with the king having pronounced that Swaziland was not ready for political parties. Swaziland is sub-Saharan Africa's last absolute monarchy. King Mswati III, 38, picks and fires ministers, and parliament basically rubber-stamps cabinet decisions. Swaziland's powerful neighbour, South Africa, and the international community have repeatedly raised concerns over governance and human rights issues. This week the country's small independent media reported that the government was to spend the equivalent of half the ballooning national debt on new cars, while about one-quarter of the population survives on food aid. Outsiders could presume that all this would provide fertile ground for a vigorous pro-democracy movement, yet the opposition struggles to make an impression in the conservative, landlocked country of one million people. No mass demonstration has been attempted since January 2005, when labour unions called for a stay-away to protest the constitutional review process, which they argued had been stage-managed to preserve royal rule. The strike, billed as a "make or break" demonstration of the opposition's muscle, went largely unobserved. "We are a small country, held together by our traditions. We do not mind a firm hand at the helm if that hand is benevolent," said Phinda Simelane, a member of the traditional royal regiments, or 'emabutfo'. Other political observers say Swazis are so overwhelmed by the struggle for survival - with 45 percent unemployment, two-thirds of its population mired in chronic poverty, and the world's highest HIV infection rate - that most people have no time for politics. "The king looks out for us. He travels the world to bring opportunities for Swazis," said Nonhlanhla Nxumalo, a widowed mother of five as she waited for her weekly ration of maize and cabbage at a World Food Programme relief station. "Democracy is the international political goal, and it is assumed that in any country where there is an unelected government, there must be a groundswell of discontent and an opposition group fanning those flames. That is not happening in Swaziland," said Ndwandwe. No new opposition figures have emerged in 20 years to infuse political debate with new ideas. Masuku has been with PUDEMO since the organisation's establishment in the 1980s, and Jan Sithole has helmed the increasingly fragmented Swaziland Federation of Trade Unions since the early 1990s. Firebrand leaders of PUDEMO's youth wing, the Swaziland Youth Congress (SWAYOCO), mostly spend their time outside Swaziland, issuing press releases from their office in South Africa that go unread by most Swazis. The new constitution seems to be the base from which the opposition has chosen to fight. The document took 10 years to draft, and while it has some groundbreaking declarations on women's rights in what remains a tradition-bound country, the caveat is that all guarantees - including freedom of speech and assembly - can be abrogated by the king. But PUDEMO and allied groups dropped a lawsuit against the government in the High Court last month. They had sought to declare the constitution null and void because it was instituted by royal decree. The suit was withdrawn because "the matter has been overtaken by events", namely the signing of the constitution by Mswati. PUDEMO's youth wing has allegedly taken more direct action. Fifteen members of SWAYOCO face the death penalty if found guilty of a string of petrol bombings carried out in 2005 against government facilities. Two minor injuries resulted from the attacks. The group was freed on bail in March, but no trial date has been set and, after a flurry of media interest, the subject has disappeared from public view and apparent interest. For more on the constitution: http://www.irinnews.org/S_report.asp?ReportID=51054&SelectRegion=Southern_Africa