Food security situation in the south deteriorates

The drought-induced food security crisis in parts of southern Somalia has deteriorated so fast that it has led to increased migration of people and livestock, a United Nations Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) has said.

"Distressed livestock and human migration, both of whole and split families, are continuing and increasing throughout the worst-affected areas," FSAU said in its monthly brief for March. "In Gedo region, the epicentre of the crisis, the majority of the pastoralists and agro-pastoralists have already either out-migrated to neighbouring regions of Bay and Lower and Middle Juba or to riverine areas within Gedo in search of pasture and water."

An estimated 1.7 million people in northern, central and southern Somalia are facing an acute food and livelihood crisis or humanitarian emergency because of prevailing drought. Preliminary estimates said that number would rise to 1.8 million - including 800,000 highly vulnerable children - over the coming months. The regions likely to be at highest risk include Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay and Bakol.

FSAU said that in some cases, entire villages had migrated to riverine areas "in search of water, income opportunities and social support." In the Bay and Bakol regions, camps for internally displaced people [IDPs] continue to receive "a steady stream of IDPs from the surrounding drought-affected areas."

It said distressed livestock migration indicated the crisis was deteriorating rapidly. Competition over limited and depleted water and pasture also threatened to increase the likelihood of clashes. In February, there were reports of "resource-based conflicts and tension" throughout the regions of Lower and Middle Juba, Bay and Bakol and Lower Shabelle.

The situation is also likely to deteriorate if the next seasonal rains, from April until June, are below normal. "If the GU 06 rains are below normal, parts of southern Somalia would be at a high risk of famine/humanitarian catastrophe from July to December 2006," warned FSAU. Even if the gu rains were normal or above normal, there would still be a need for continued humanitarian assistance to support livelihood recovery due to extremely high asset losses, weakened human health conditions and debt accumulation as a result of the drought, it said.