Peace stalemate could rumble on, and on - analysts

Six weeks after a lapsed UN deadline, two African heavyweight leaders fly in to divided Cote d’Ivoire at the weekend to make a fresh try at finding a prime minister acceptable to all sides in the conflict. But analysts are increasingly pessimistic of a quick fix. After a failed mediation attempt just 10 days ago, South African President Thabo Mbeki and Nigerian President and African Union Chairman Olusegun Obasanjo are due back on Sunday to attempt to wrest an agreement on a new prime minister to shepherd the war-torn nation to disarmament and elections before a UN deadline of October 2006. “I am pessimistic about a resolution in Cote d’Ivoire within the next 12 months unless something cataclysmic happens outside the country that changes the balance,” said Richard Reeves, Associate Fellow of the Africa Programme, Chatham House. “Even then, the situation would be likely to get worse before getting better.” The appointment of the new head of government is the latest bone of contention between rebels holding the north of the country and President Laurent Gbagbo, who controls the fertile cocoa-growing south. Under a UN Security Council plan hatched some weeks ago, Gbagbo, whose mandate ended 31 October, is supposed to hand over much of his powers to a new prime minister. But the world’s top cocoa producer has been the scene of a series of botched peace deals over the past three years. Since a September 2002 rebellion left the country sliced in two, mediators have come and gone incessantly, including Senegal, Togo under late president Gnassingbe Eyadema, former colonial power France, Ghana, Gabon and lately South Africa, the AU and Nigeria. Though peace efforts first got off to a swift start with Senegal, then chair of the regional economic body ECOWAS, momentum was soon lost with diplomats blaming the intransigence of the Ivorians and clashing egos within the Economic Community of West African States. “I am not proud of spending four months of my time, almost 24 hours per day, trying to help the Cote d’Ivoire crisis,” Cheikh Tidiane Gadio, Foreign Minister of Senegal, said after the event. “Dealing with conflicts, managing conflicts - that should not be a way of life. We have something else to do: health, agriculture, education, infrastructure…we have so much on our plate.” Though the former colonial power France managed to thrash out the January 2003 Marcoussis peace deal - which has served as the blueprint for all subsequent accords in Ghana and South Africa - France has since withdrawn, at least visibly, from negotiations. Violent anti-French riots swept through the government-run south in November 2004 and early this year, when packing his bags, Gildas le Lidec told IRIN he was leaving Cote d’Ivoire with a “profound sense of failure”. Mbeki was called in to help in November 2004. But despite intensive mediation and some success in amending controversial legislation, the South Africa bid stopped short of resolving two major issues - disarmament and the question of nationality. That failure caused the collapse of a plan to hold elections last October, which was when the UN stepped in to call for a new prime minister. But the New Forces rebels have turned their backs on Mbeki and his team, accusing them of bias in Gbagbo’s favour, and Obasanjo has had to be called in. “Obviously Mbeki is regretting getting involved,” said Reeves. “It’s interesting to see how things have changed: three years ago everyone wanted a piece of the negotiations.” Meanwhile, diplomats agree that mutual mistrust, inflexibility and lack of goodwill between Gbagbo’s government, the various political opposition parties and the rebels are so deep-rooted that peace could be a long way away. “It will take years to get the country back on track,” said one Western diplomat. “The Ivorian leaders have absolutely no vision of where their country should be in say, twenty years from now. They talk to each other all the time, but there is no real political dialogue.” The latest row is over the composition of the National Electoral Commission that will organise the polls. Last week, the Supreme Court declared null and void the election of its chairman on the grounds that several members were unfairly excluded from the vote. Preparations for the elections remain on hold until the electoral commission can agree on a new chairman or until the new prime minister outlines how the commission should be set up and what its responsibilities will be. “They need to develop some habits like discussing and not just reflecting a political standpoint,” UN special envoy for the elections, Antonio Monteiro, told IRIN. “Individually they want elections, they want to collaborate, but when we get to the real issues it all falls apart…it’s totally divided.” Sanctions remain a threat and on Wednesday, the UN Security Council reminded the factions that it could impose travel bans or asset freezes on anyone seen as obstructing the peace process. "Travel and asset freezes are likely to have more impact than an arms embargo as neither side has need for arms procurement currently. But if people's personal and financial status are affected - that's a different matter," said Alex Vines, member of a UN panel of experts that earlier this month submitted a report investigating compliance with a 2004 arms embargo. "In the short term it's the individual sanctions - the travel bans and assets freezes - that could have some impact, but as with all sanctions they will become less effective with time, as loopholes and ways around the sanctions are found," Vines told IRIN. Be it new sanctions or settling on a name for the post of prime minister, many diplomats think it is time for the international community to toughen up. “Those involved in the crisis don’t want to sacrifice for the good of the country. It’s getting to a stage where outside pressure has to be applied,” an African diplomat told IRIN. “Ultimately, a bit of force may have a positive effect.”