Tension builds up in a closely contested election in Zanzibar

With elections just two days away, there is palpable tension in Tanzania's semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar, where a strong opposition has promised an extremely tight race. Due to its history of election violence, and the postponement of the Union presidential election following the death of one of the candidates, all eyes are now on the hotly contested Zanzibari presidential vote. The ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), is fielding incumbent President Amani Abeid Karume, while Seif Sharif Hamad is the candidate for the Civic United Front (CUF), the main opposition party. There are four other presidential hopefuls in the Zanzibar election, but observers and islanders alike agree that it is essentially a two-horse race between CCM and CUF, which has its base and its strongest support on the island. In the 1995 election, CCM won by just one percent of the vote, and in 2000, while Karume won 67 percent of the vote, Hamad got 33 percent. Both parties maintain that they have gained strength since the last election. Free and fair elections Following election violence on the island of Pemba in the aftermath of the 2000 poll that left scores dead, a political accord was reached that aimed at reducing the tension between the two parties and their supporters. Under the accord, a new Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) was formed, incorporating members of both CCM and CUF. The old ZEC had been blamed for many of the shortcomings of the 2000 election. "Today, few can complain about ZEC because, first of all, we have members of both parties on the commission and, secondly, we are very transparent and have had agents from all parties present at all stages of the election," said Saleh Yussuf Mnemo, an assistant public information officer for ZEC. However, the opposition maintains that despite ZEC's restructuring, the body remains partial to the government and is, therefore, unable to conduct the election freely and fairly. "The commission is meant to be impartial, but we can see that it is not. We have not seen any of those people found to be doubly registered going to court; there has been a long delay in the release of the voters' register," Ibrahim Lipumba, CUF's Union presidential candidate, told reporters on Friday in Zanzibar's capital, Stone Town. "Moreover, we are extremely concerned about the involvement of the army in the distribution, and particularly in the collection, of election materials from the polling stations," he said. "We urge ZEC to repudiate the army's involvement in the process of collection." Mnemo maintained that there was no political motive behind the army's participation. "The army is not distributing or collecting, but merely transporting the materials to and from the polling stations," he said. There is heavy military deployment on the island, and one local journalist, who preferred to remain anonymous, said more troops had arrived. Local media has quoted the inspector general of police, Iddi Omar Mahita, as saying there has been additional deployment on the island to ensure the polls are free of violence. Human rights violations Zanzibar's previous elections have been characterised by rampant human rights abuses, with analysts blaming the government for most of these violations. "While abuses are not restricted to government forces, the majority of reports implicate the government," Zanzibar Watch, a human rights watchdog, reported. "The two previous elections in Zanzibar were declared not free and fair by international observers and have witnessed serious unrest and state representation," it added. "Both were marred by violence and intimidation of the opposition." Zanzibar Watch also reported the arrest of two CUF supporters who allegedly attacked a policeman on 17 October. When CUF organised demonstrations to protest the results and conduct of the 2000 elections, the government declared them illegal and violence followed, notably on the island of Pemba, where tens of people died and hundreds were arrested. CUF alleges that a group of youths, known as the "Janjawid", have been hired, trained and are being housed by CCM in camps around the island, with the purpose of harassing the opposition. However, the publicity secretary for CCM, Vuai Ali Vuai, said there was no such thing as the Janjawid. "That is CUF's way of creating a stir because they know they have already lost," he said There have been no deaths so far in this campaign, but several people have been injured, with incidents of violence reported to the police as recently as 18 October, when two CUF supporters were admitted to the island's Al Rahma Hospital following an attack by alleged Janjawid. Opposition supporters have also cited the lack of freedom of the press as one of the key violations that the government continues to perpetrate. In 2003, the Zanzibari government suspended "Dira", an independent newspaper, for "violating professional ethics". Poor or unbalanced media coverage was one of the reasons international observers, including the then Organization of African Unity, declared the 2000 election unfair. A struggling economy Zanzibar remains desperately poor following decades of socialism and, beginning in the late 1980s, an attempt at liberalisation. According to a study by the University of Dar es Salaam in 2003, some 61 percent of Zanzibaris are without their basic livelihood needs; in Pemba that figure is 64 percent. "CCM has failed miserably in their so-called socialism," Hamad told IRIN on Wednesday. "We are a liberal party who would privatise the clove industry [main source of revenue on the island] to ensure that clove farmers get their dues." For its part, CCM claims that it has lifted Zanzibar out of even more dire economic straits than it is currently in, and plans to continue to build the island's economy. "The island was previously [pre-independence, in 1964] controlled by the Sultan of Oman. It was terribly poor, and most houses were built with coconut tree leaves," Vuai said. "Today, Zanzibaris have electricity, water, tarmac roads, we have three universities on the island – no one can accuse us of failing the island. In fact, President Karume has even bigger plans to eradicate poverty during his next five years," he added. Some Zanzibaris nevertheless feel marginalised by the current government. "We are much poorer than the people on the mainland. We are not considered equal in this union," a local businesswoman said. The University of Dar es Salaam study revealed that Zanzibar's per capita income in 2003 was almost three times lower than that of mainland Tanzania. The post-election scenario The presidential race, the poll for the House of Representatives and local councils, are all expected to be very closely contested. However, some observers have said that hundreds of public defections from CUF over the past few months could tilt the vote towards the ruling party. CUF has made it clear that it is confident of victory and will not accept a result it feels does not reflect the truth. Hamad said they would stage peaceful demonstrations if such a situation arose. Vuai was equally optimistic, saying the idea that CUF could win was a "grand dream". One observer, who preferred anonymity, told IRIN violence was less likely during this election because "the government is fully aware that all eyes are on Zanzibar; it does not want to tarnish its name further". The opposition said it was urging its supporters to be "peaceful and disciplined", with Hamad saying they should not carry "any kind of weapon, not even a stone or a razor blade". The postponement of the Union election has put another spin on the complex Zanzibar question. CUF's Union presidential candidate, Ibrahim Lipumba, told reporters on Friday that while CUF had run out of campaign funds, the fact that the mainland election would be taking place after the Zanzibar one worked in his favour. "When we win the election on the island, mainlanders will see that change is possible and will change their own vote," he said. Others worry that with the cancellation, more troops could be brought onto the island to ensure a CCM win, a claim the party rubbished as baseless. The election and post-election period on this island of one million will be yet another test of the progress of democracy in Zanzibar.