Banker, diplomat, academic in running for crucial prime minister job

“Who will be the prime minister?” was the banner headline across most newspapers in Cote d'Ivoire on Tuesday. One thing is certain -- whoever is appointed Cote d’Ivoire’s new prime minister will face the mammoth task of building peace in a country paralysed by three years of war. However, with only days to go before a 31 October deadline, laid down by the United Nations, diplomats and analysts remain divided over who can best rally a country that is split in two with 10,000 UN troops keeping the peace between rebel north and loyalist south. “That is the big question,” said analyst Gilles Olakounle Yabi of the Brussels-based think-tank, International Crisis Group. “The new prime minister on paper has all the powers. He plays a key role.” After a string of deals to restore peace to West Africa’s economic powerhouse broke down, the UN Security Council last week formally adopted fresh proposals hammered out by the African Union (AU) that provided for a new prime minister to shepherd the country to presidential elections by 31 October 2006 at the latest. Only rebel chief Guillaume Soro has put forward his own name, on the grounds that his men control half the land. But some of the other potential candidates being mentioned again and again are a banker, a diplomat, an academic as well as the current Prime Minister, Seydou Diarra. “He could be re-appointed,” said Yabi. “It would be the simplest and least complicated of all choices, and he would win approval from some of the opposition.” Diarra, a 72-year-old businessman, was appointed to lead the government of national conciliation that was set up after the Linas-Marcoussis peace accords, brokered by former colonial power France in January 2003. Foreign diplomats praise his kind manner but many Ivorians accuse him of weakness, saying he never spoke up during political or military crises. However, diplomats say that while Gbagbo ceded most of his executive powers to Diarra under the terms of the 2003 peace plan, the transfer was on paper only. Gbagbo continued to handle most affairs of state himself with the help of his special advisors or shadow cabinet. "Diarra never had much chance to assert himself,” a western diplomat told IRIN. “Gbagbo and his special advisors were calling the shots … All major decisions were taken by the presidency." No elections in sight Gbagbo’s five-year mandate expires next weekend and Cote d'Ivoire was to have held presidential elections on Sunday. But the failure of the rebels and pro-government militia to disarm made it impossible to organize elections in the war-divided nation as scheduled. In a bid to bolster the new prime minister’s powers, the new UN plans spell out the cabinet chief’s responsibilities. The appointee must have “all the governmental, financial, material and human resources, particularly with regard to security, defence and electoral matters,” it says. It goes on to say that the government will bear the chief responsibility for disarmament, redeployment of public services and the organisation of elections. The nomination is to be brokered by AU and Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and South African President Thabo Mbeki -- who has acted as AU mediator in Cote d’Ivoire for almost the past year. The pair fly into the troubled West African nation at the end of the week to ensure the UN deadlines are respected. Rebel chief Soro told IRIN this week that the post of prime minister should go to the rebel New Forces because they control half of the country.

Rebel leader Guillaume Soro

Although diplomats say it is highly unlikely that Gbagbo will find his chief adversary Soro acceptable, some say the squat 34-year-old tops the list of candidates of the opposition coalition known as G7. "The opposition wants a man who can say 'no' to Gbagbo," said Moussa Toure, chief editor of opposition daily Nord-Sud. "Despite his age Soro exerts a lot of authority. He has proven himself capable of countering Gbagbo." Soro has said if he is not to be prime minister, his second in command, political strategist Louis-Andre Dacoury-Tabley, should get the nod. If this happened, Gbagbo would have to collaborate with his former best friend-turned-enemy. Like Gbagbo, Dacoury-Tabley was born in 1945 and obtained a degree in history. He was a key figure in the president’s ruling Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) party before joining the rebellion in 2002. Multiple contenders However, the man most often cited as a likely choice for prime minister is trained economist Charles Konan Banny, governor of the Central Bank of West African States since 1990. Banny hails from the political capital Yamoussoukro and wields a lot of influence among the Baoule ethnic group, which traditionally backs the former ruling Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire (PDCI). But some senior PDCI party officials, including leader Henri Konan Bedie, consider him to be "a traitor", a top PDCI official told IRIN on condition of anonymity. Banny's declared intention to run as an independent candidate in the now-cancelled presidential elections was widely seen as an attempt to break up the party and weaken its leader. “He would be a good choice if he agreed not to run for president in the forthcoming elections,” Yabi said. That is one of the conditions tied to becoming the next head of government. Some analysts say Banny's many contacts in the region could help repair Gbagbo's poor image among his West African counterparts. But others fear that with no experience in the political field, Banny would be subservient to Gbagbo.

President Gbagbo

Other contenders for the job are former agriculture minister Lambert Kouassi Konan and retired general Gaston Ouassenan Kone, whom the opposition wanted as Defence Minister in 2003, but whose candidature was vehemently rejected by Gbagbo. Francois Amichia, the mayor of Treichville, and Amara Essy, a former mediator and top African Union diplomat, are also in the running. All four men have risen through the ranks of the PDCI. General Ouassenan Kone is the most controversial of the lot, due in part to his alleged involvement as a commander during ethnic clashes in the late 1960s. Former agriculture minister Kouassi Konan is liked by all warring factions, but is said to be a political novice. Zemogo Fofana, a member of the RDR opposition party and minister for higher education in the current power-sharing government has also been mooted, as has academic Jacqueline Lohoues Oble, the sole woman cited as a possible premier. As the country awaits a decision, the G7 opposition coalition has said its ministers will stop going to cabinet meetings as of Wednesday and will stay away until a new prime minister is named. "President Laurent Gbagbo was sworn in on 26 October 2000 [so] on 26 October 2005, his mandate expires," spokesman Alphonse Djedje Mady said to thunderous applause from supporters on Tuesday. "As from tomorrow, his constitutional mandate having expired, we ask all G7 ministers to no longer participate in cabinet meetings and finish up with pending issues until the formation of a new government."