Failure of long-cycle crops predicted

Inadequate rainfall in September could result in a "total failure" of long-cycle crops and a below average harvest of short-cycle crops in Eritrea, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) predicted on Friday. "As most of the short-cycle crops were at the late vegetative and early flowering stage in August, continuity of the rains through the end of September was assumed critical for the upcoming harvest," the USAID-funded FEWS NET said in its latest update. "However, a dry spell prevailed during the last three weeks of September in most parts of the country, and this is expected to affect the expected harvest severely," it added. Pasture availability was unsatisfactory in most parts of the country, due to inadequate and irregular rain in July and August, according to the FEWS NET report. It said a nutrition survey carried out by the Health Ministry in collaboration with various other governmental and non-governmental organizations in Debub, Anseba, Northern Red Sea (NRS), and Gash Barka zones had shown that malnutrition rates had risen significantly since the previous survey last December. The worst affected areas were Gash Barka and Anseba zones, where the prevalence of 'global acute malnutrition' rates was 19.1 and 18.4 respectively. Although the number of food aid beneficiaries had originally been estimated at 1.9 million, for the past eight months only 1.3 million on average received food aid and at reduced rations, FEWS NET reported. It however noted that there were now enough food stocks in warehouses to feed 1.9 million people at normal ration sizes until December. "With the arrival of 45,531 mt in August, minus the August distribution of 16,281 mt, the balance of food stocks in the Eritrea Relief and Rehabilitation Commission warehouse at the end of August was 80,294 mt," FEWS NET said. "The balance stock, plus the anticipated arrival of around 62,635 mt, should meet normal rations for 1.9 million beneficiaries through the end of December 2004," it added. Prices of most foods have been very high over the past few months, making the market a less viable option for most urban and rural poor households.