Special Report on 12 years of independence - Continued

PROGRESS AND REGRESSION Pool however also underlines the positive aspects of developments since independence, “particularly in education and the efficient delivery of services – more remarkable given the legacy of war and poverty”. In an interview with IRIN, he hailed the resilience of the Eritreans and their determination to “insulate themselves from neo-liberalism which can be so detrimental”. Author and academic Dan Connell, who spent many years as a journalist with the EPLF during its liberation struggle, agrees that from 1991-98, there was remarkable social and economic progress. He notes the rapid development of the infrastructure, the construction of health clinics and schools, irrigation projects for the rural community – a series of measures aimed at pulling the nation together. “That effort of social justice and economic democracy is one of Eritrea’s greatest achievements,” Connell told IRIN. “It overcame religious, ethnic and regional differences to give everyone access to basic services and economic opportunities.” But the 1998 war with Ethiopia was disastrous for the fledgling state. The World Bank says the country is facing a huge labour shortage due to military mobilisation, and the impact on the manufacturing sector in particular has been devastating. According to the Bank, a decade of progress has been reversed. Nevertheless, it says there are many positive signs that Eritrea can regain the momentum lost through years of conflict. It notes in particular the characteristics of self-reliance and determination that sustained the country during the liberation war. The CIA World Factbook says that even during the 1998-2000 war, Eritrea continued to develop its infrastructure, asphalting new roads, improving its ports, and repairing war damaged roads and bridges. It warns however that Eritrea's economic future remains mixed. “The cessation of Ethiopian trade, which mainly used Eritrean ports before the war, leaves Eritrea with a large economic hole to fill,” the report says. “Eritrea's economic future depends upon its ability to master fundamental social problems like illiteracy, unemployment, and low skills, and to convert the diaspora's money and expertise into economic growth.” Demobilisation is still awaited, as are elections, postponed from December 2001, the introduction of political parties and implementation of the constitution. Thousands of refugees are still awaiting repatriation from Sudan, an operation currently on hold due to the closure of the border between the two countries amid worsening bilateral relations. The threat of war still hangs in the air with the impending demarcation of the border with Ethiopia, and indications by the latter that it may not accept an independent ruling which mapped out the new line between the countries. Tigrayans living in the now symbolic town of Badme – currently administered by Ethiopia, but which, according to the independent Boundary Commission, falls in Eritrea – have vowed to fight, rather than allow the town to be “taken away”. Eritrea insists it will not bend to the “western model of democracy” and will do things its own way, in its own time. But donors are increasingly uneasy about Eritrea’s apparent unwillingness to compromise and the country risks slipping further into isolation. The country’s success in cutting across barriers of ethnicity and regionalism gave it a “tremendous amount of space”, observers say. “But if that space ceases to exist, it will leave a situation that is ripe for conflict.”

Destroyed APC - reminders of the struggle are everywhere in Eritrea

OPPOSITION VOICES The uncertain climate is creating a fertile breeding ground for the government’s opponents to make their voices – and actions – felt. The authorities blame their enemies, Sudan, Ethiopia and Yemen, for supporting various opposition groups springing up outside the country. The recent murder of a British geologist in western Eritrea - a shocking development in a country renowned for its safety record – was blamed squarely on the radical opposition Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement (EIJM), which Asmara says is backed by Sudan. Both the EIJM and Khartoum have denied the accusations. But the EIJM has admitted responsibility for a series of recent mine blasts in the demilitarised zone along the 1,000 km border between Ethiopia and Eritrea – a strip of land 25 km wide which falls entirely in Eritrean territory. Observers note that the EIJM is just one of a number of extremist Islamist movements in the Horn of Africa which are flourishing under the current instability in the region. “If only Eritrea and Ethiopia could mend their relations, both countries have an interest in cooperating against these movements as part of the war against terrorism,” a regional expert pointed out. Eritrea, split almost evenly between Moslems and Christians, has been a model of peaceful co-existence between the religions. But Eritrea-watchers say cracks are now appearing in the relationship. This, they say, is due to a number of factors – the impact of the war with Ethiopia, the return of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Sudan, the growing influence of Islamic opposition movements and resentment in the lowlands of a perceived “colonisation” by Christian highlanders. “The exclusionary character of post-independence politics provides a basis for the opposition to portray the system as essentially undemocratic,” says David Pool, who also warns that the achievements of liberation are beginning to fade among the younger generation.

99.9 percent voted in favour of independence in 1993

Analysts say the greatest threat to the government probably comes from the “informal opposition” within the country. Many of the opposition movements outside the country are so associated with either Sudan or Ethiopia that they have little credibility. PARTY PROBLEMS Rifts are also appearing within the ruling PFDJ, the only permitted party, as the president “seeks to figure out who is loyal and who isn’t”. “He is seeking a purification that is impossible,” one observer said. Analysts note that the current problems within the PFDJ did not just spring up overnight – there had already been tensions within the liberation front going back to the 1980s. And as far back as the early 1970s, there was a crisis within the EPLF when a dissident wing began challenging the front in general, and Isayas Afewerki in particular. The group, known as the menka – the Tigrinya word for bat because its members met at night – was unhappy over a perceived lack of democracy within the front. Some of the menka leaders were later executed. After independence, while much was made of public participation in issues such as defining the constitution and structuring the state and political movement, there was a consolidation of power within the president’s office. The 1998 war with Ethiopia served to “accelerate the contraction of power”, one regional observer said. “But if Isayas had gone ahead with elections, he could have won with 99 percent of the vote,” the observer added. “He still could.” UNIFYING A DIVERSE NATION Because of the EPLF’s social and political education policy, ordinary Eritreans had a fairly sophisticated grasp of the dangers of ethnicity and regionalism, gender issues, and so on, and could make informed choices. “There was a foundation on which to build a democratic society, unlike most countries in Africa,” says Dan Connell. “What’s needed now is for the government to pardon the detainees, implement the constitution and get on with the democratisation process,” he told IRIN. “This is a movement that has made remarkable achievements in unifying a diverse nation. It would be a tragedy if they fail to institutionalise this for future generations.”