Focus on rising dissent as cost of living soars

Rising discontent over soaring inflation and a rapidly shrinking economy could lead to serious confrontation between the government and disgruntled Zimbabwean workers, analysts warned on Thursday. In response to declining living standards, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) has called for widespread tax cuts, saying the deepening economic crisis had eroded the purchasing power of workers. Zimbabwe is in the midst of its worst economic crisis since independence from Britain in 1980, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warning that the inflation rate will rise to 155 percent by the end of the year - twice the government's estimate of 70 percent. Lovemore Matombo, the president of the ZCTU, said the umbrella labour movement had appealed to the government to exempt all workers earning below Zim $23,000 (US $418 at the official rate) from paying tax. "The level of poverty has dramatically increased. Workers are no longer paid for overtime work, the cost of living is very high. It has become near impossible for families to afford basic food items as well as access to social services," Matombo told IRIN. The federation also wanted the government to scrap tax on retrenchment payouts for workers who were laid off by liquidated companies. "The government would do well to heed the frustrations of the workers. Whether or not they concede to our request, it is important that the people are aware of the labour movement's position on spiralling inflation," Matombo added. As the pace of Zimbabwe's economic decline accelerated in the mid 1990s, the unions emerged as the main political challenge to President Robert Mugabe. However, the once powerful ZCTU may be losing its clout as the formal sector of the economy continues to shrink at an alarming rate, robbing the movement of members. Earlier this year a three-day industrial action received a lukewarm response from workers. Analysts suggested that fear of the government's response - after a violent presidential election campaign - and draconian labour laws were responsible for the poor showing. A new security law also gives the president the power to declare any strike illegal. All public demonstrations - including protests by striking workers - now require prior police approval. The ZCTU was central to the creation of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in 1999, and is regarded as synonymous with the party by the government. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai led the ZCTU during the 1990s, at a crucial period when the movement marked its independence from the ruling ZANU-PF. This week, the government demonstrated how it could deal with recalcitrant workers by firing 627 striking members of the Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe ahead of crucial end of year exams. The teachers demanded a 100 percent salary increment backdated to January this year and another 100 percent cost of living adjustment backdated to June. Also this week health care professionals at Harare and Parirenyatwa hospitals downed tools again. Doctors and nurses went on strike in August pressing for more pay but had resumed their duties following a government undertaking to review their salaries. Analysts told IRIN that the recent flurry of strikes was a sign that Zimbabwe's labour force was becoming restless over the government's failure to address spiralling inflation. John Makumbe, a political analyst at the University of Zimbabwe said: "Already there is talk that the hospital technicians may go on strike. It is also likely that the electricity workers may join them. There is mounting resistance to how the government is running the country." Whether or not workers would take to the streets in protest, resulting in an inevitable confrontation with the security forces, depended on the government's response to their frustrations, Makumbe said. "Workers are acutely aware of the government's capacity to use its instruments of repression. Nobody really wants to lose their lives in the process. The firing of so many teachers has elicited a lot of anger among parents. It is this anger that may filter onto the streets of Harare," Makumbe added. But, he said, the anti-trade unionism laws and extra-legal constraints would make it difficult for the ZCTU to mobilise support on the same level as it did 1998. The ZCTU successfully flexed its muscles in 1998 when it forced the government to scrap a 2.5 percent sales tax, a 5 percent tax on personal incomes, a 15 percent tax on pension-fund profits and a range of other levies. "The government is unlikely to heed ZCTU's demands for tax cuts. In fact, ZANU-PF has become a lot more strident in recent months. A confrontation between the government and workers could lead to a bloodbath and everyone concerned is very aware of this. [But] we are likely to see further stayaways and sit-ins," Richard Cornwell, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa said. However, Makumbe did not rule out the possibility of mass action, as a "simple incident could transform an ostensibly calm situation into an all-out confrontation between the police and workers". Meanwhile, since the MDC's defeat in local council elections last month - marred by intimidation and the inability of the MDC to contest in half of the wards - the party had "lost direction", one analyst said. Tsvangirai was reluctant to call for mass action fearing the government may use the opportunity to violently clamp down on opposition supporters, said the analyst who asked not to be named. "The MDC has yet to recover from what they perceive was a 'stolen presidency'. There have been rumours of internal squabbles and the bruising they received from losing the last local elections has left them without direction. All they do now is hope for a managed transition from Mugabe to somebody else in ZANU-PF," Cornwell said. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe's currency this week sank to its lowest level in the country's history. At the present parallel rate of exchange, it now costs nearly 1,000 Zimbabwe dollars for one US dollar. Economists say the latest plunge was sparked by the cost of imported fuel. Three weeks of fuel shortages ended on Monday after the government reportedly used all its available foreign currency to pay Libya for fuel. The fuel was stored in tanks controlled by the Libyans on the outskirts of Harare, and they only released it after receiving payment in foreign currency.