Landslides imminent following monsoons

With monsoons making early inroads, fear has engulfed many communities in earthquake-battered areas of northern Pakistan after a warning by international organisations that torrential rains in July and August may trigger major landslides in the area. “We are afraid of another nightmare approaching us,” said Imran Khan, a resident of the northern town of Balakot that was levelled by last year’s tremor. “The land has developed wide cracks after last year’s earthquake and there will certainly be massive landslides during the monsoons,” he warned. The World Conservation Union (IUCN), the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) and CARE International last week warned that cracks and unstable mountains could cause massive landslides and loss of life and agricultural land in the event of heavy or extended rains. A 7.6 magnitude earthquake that jolted Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Pakistani-administered Kashmir on 8 October 2005 killed at least 75,000 people and left more then 3.5 million homeless. Quake survivors have since faced many challenges, including spending winter in the harsh Himalayan region without proper shelter and other basic necessities, while today they face the additional threat of landslides. “Life has been a misery after that black day [8 October]… and still we are not sure when our hardships will end,” said 17-year-old Imran, who lost many of his relatives and a home in the disaster. Imran’s 75-year-old grandfather, Muqadus Rehman, also looked very worried that the spate of monsoons would this time not be as harmless as rains in the past had been. “With cracks on the hills wide open, we will be at the mercy of water flowing down the valley. Nobody knows how much damage it will cause,” Muqadus said with a grim voice. Balakot, one of the towns worst hit by the earthquake, is located in the narrow Kahgan Valley overlooked by high mountains. The peaks do not contain solid rock and are composed of mainly sandy material that can easily be washed down valleys by torrential rains. With monsoons due in mid-July, when an average rainfall of 650 mm could fall in just six weeks, it is highly likely that soil - made heavy by absorbing water – will trigger unstable slopes to slide, experts warn. Any major landslides have been prevented so far by the absence of heavy rains since the earthquake. Landslides have already started in parts of northern Pakistan. A mudslide prompted by monsoons left 22 people dead, five seriously injured and seven still missing in Ghaeel village in Kalam valley, north of Peshawar, capital of NWFP, the UN Office for the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said last week. Mud and boulders buried three houses in Ghaeel, where approximately 30 people were living. A heavy rain-swollen canal in the area caused mud and rocks to fall on the houses, the UN agency explained. The Geological Survey of Pakistan is currently in the process of identifying landslide threats in the area. But a comprehensive landslide hazard mapping and subsequent risk analysis has yet to be conducted to cover the entire 30,000 sq km quake-affected are. Meanwhile, experts have advised local communities to stay away from the rivers because of the risk of flash floods, to carefully monitor large cracks on slopes once the rainy season sets in and to keep local authorities informed of any changes.