Focus on former military rulers in politics

Military rule ended in Nigeria when President Olusegun Obasanjo was elected for a four-year term in 1999, but as the country gears up for general elections in 2002, analysts consider that the military has remained a major factor in Nigerian politics. Past and present members of the armed forces still hold influential positions, while others hope to do so through next year's polls. Obasanjo himself was a former military ruler who took the helm in 1976 after his predecessor, Gen Murtala Mohammed, was assassinated in a failed coup. "Even now as an elected president, his kitchen cabinet could pass for a military junta," Ike Onyekwere, a political analyst, told IRIN. The defence minister, Lt-Gen Theophilus Danjuma, was the army chief of staff when Obasanjo was military ruler between 1976 and 1979. The national security adviser, Gen Aliyu Gusau - briefly the army chief under late Gen Sani Abacha - was also Gen Ibrahim Babangida’s security adviser when he held sway between 1985 and 1993. The current chief of staff at the presidency, Gen. Abdullahi Mohammed, served as national security adviser to Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar, who succeeded Abacha on his death in 1998 and organised elections that brought Obasanjo to power for a second time. Many former military officers also won seats in the senate and the house of representatives. Others are prominent actors in the country's six registered political parties. The targets of their aspirations range from seats in parliament to the presidency. The strongest challengers to Obasanjo’s re-election bid are generally believed to be two former military rulers: Gen Muhammadu Buhari and Babangida. Buhari overthrew a civilian government installed by Obasanjo in 1983 and was toppled two years later by his army chief, Babangida. He joined the opposition All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) on the same day that Obasanjo declared his interest in seeking re-election: 25 April. He, too, has indicated his interest in running for president. Babangida provided political and financial support for Obasanjo’s election three years ago. However, he is known to be nursing presidential ambitions of his own and has not said anything to contradict frontmen campaigning for his return in 2003. For long, a popular saying in Nigeria had it that there were only two political parties in the country: the military and the civilians. Over time, military elements have proved more adept at the power game than their civilian counterparts. They have been in power for all but 12 years since the country’s independence in 1960. Former military officers are among the wealthiest Nigerians and this places then at an advantage when campaigning for election. Moreover, they are considered to have retained some political clout in the current democratic dispensation. Some analysts say that although the military decided to relinquish power in 1999 after more than 15 years of unbroken rule, it programmed its candidate to win. Abacha had Obasanjo and more than 30 other pro-democracy activists jailed over an alleged plot to topple his regime. Three weeks after Abacha’s death his successor, Gen Abubakar, selectively granted Obasanjo pardon and released him while the others remained in jail for the same offence. Although they were subsequently released, they were not immediately pardoned. It was left to Obasanjo to eventually grant them pardon after he took office. "By granting Obasanjo pardon, his conviction was technically wiped out, making it possible for him to run for elective office," Jimi Aderigbigbe, an analyst, told IRIN. "And the selective way it was done, and the manner in which he subsequently emerged president, meant he was already being primed for the office right from the prison gates.” Despite criticism of the emergence of a former military ruler as elected president, Obasanjo - with his background and experience - was generally touted as best suited to keep an overly ambitious army in check and secure Nigeria’s new democracy. He justified this belief soon after assuming power, when he purged the armed forces of hundreds of officers deemed politically tainted. But since then, cracks in the president’s constituency of former generals appear to have thrown up new political equations. The biggest factors appear to be Babangida’s undeclared but discernible political intentions and Buhari’s declared intention to run. Babangida is viewed as having considerable political skills, which make him a stronger challenger than Buhari. The latter’s support for the introduction of strict Islamic or Sharia law in parts of the mainly Muslim north is believed to have undermined his marketability in multi-religious, multi-ethnic Nigeria. For many Nigerians, moves by Obasanjo’s government to probe Babangida for the murder by parcel bomb of a prominent editor 16 years ago when he was military ruler indicate that he is considered a serious political threat. The president had in the past resisted pressure to investigate various allegations against Babangida - including claims that he plundered the treasury - on the grounds that there was no evidence against him. A probe would have ominous implications for Babangida’s political ambitions, and he has launched a legal battle to stop it. Some analysts, however, see some good signs in the involvement of former military leaders in politics. "One obvious implication is that those who were responsible in the past for the coups plots have accepted the democratic route to power," Obi Onuogu, a political commentator, told IRIN. But Kunle Ayinde, a political science lecturer, is concerned about the reactions of those among them who fail to realise their political ambitions by the ballot. "They may resort to the old methods and use their colleagues now in the barracks for the purpose," he told IRIN. According to Ayinde, the old machinations in the barracks that produced coups and counter-coups in Nigeria over a 29-year period have certainly been brought to the political terrain. "The objectives remain the same - to capture power and dispense the country’s immense oil wealth," he said.