Focus on challenges to the cohesion of the state

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) made history in 1999 when it became the first political party in Nigeria to obtain an absolute majority in parliament and control more than two-thirds of the 36 state governments and 774 local councils. But while rival parties have lacked the numbers needed to mount more than a feeble challenge to President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government in the past three years, elements in the ruling party have provided a more effective opposition. Now with general elections due in the first quarter of next year, PDP factions are locked in power struggles ahead of the polls, and the political stability of Nigeria could be jeopardised if the party fails to hold the country together ahead of and during the crucial polls. Obasanjo has declared his intention to seek re-election, but leading members of his party have been urging the electorate to reject him. Ghali Na’Abba, speaker of the House of Representatives (the lower chamber of parliament), has vowed to leave the PDP for another party should it choose Obasanjo as its flagbearer in upcoming presidential primaries. "We must not allow Obasanjo to come back to power again," Na’Abba said recently at a party function in the northern city of Kano. "Since we elected him he has only succeeded in showing his power and working against the interests of the party." Na’Abba, who has survived several attempts to impeach him as speaker, is not the only party chieftain at loggerheads with the executive. Pius Anyim, president of the Senate and until recently a trusted ally of Obasanjo, has also fallen out with the president and the PDP's chairman, Audu Ogbe. The signs first emerged two weeks ago, when the Senate passed a motion to begin impeachment proceedings against Obasanjo over alleged breaches of the Constitution. Though the motion was later dropped, this has been seen by some as a tactical - and temporary - retreat. One major consequence of the conflict between the executive and the legislature is that the 2002 budget has yet to be passed. The draft submitted by Obasanjo in November 2001 allocated about 800 billion naira (US $6.8 billion) for expenditure, but the legislators increased that provision to over one trillion naira (US $8.6 billion) before passing the bill. The president rejected it as unrealistic and sent it back for amendment, which parliament has refused to do. "There is huge concern that conditions are rapidly deteriorating," Clement Nwankwo, head of the human rights group, Constitutional Rights Project, told IRIN. "Almost eight months into the year there is no approved national budget and all government activities have come to a halt." The rift within the party is also in evidence in states controlled by the PDP. Among the most bitter critics of Obasanjo’s government are the governors of Abia and Akwa Ibom, both elected on a PDP platform. Moreover, party congresses and primaries held across the country in recent weeks ahead of local elections scheduled for 10 August were characterised by factional violence. "The problem with the PDP is that it is a party made up of strange bedfellows," Yemi Adewumi, a political analyst, told IRIN. "It was formed with the primary objective of grabbing power and, having won the elections, it has been unable to manage the victory and things are unravelling." This was confirmed by party chairman, Ogbeh, while setting up a special disciplinary committee on 22 July. "The tragedy is that individuals within the party see it more as a platform for anarchy," he said. "Indiscipline is rife, fears of disintegrations are real." The origins of the PDP go back to an attempt in 1998 by a group of Nigerian politicians of varying backgrounds to stop military strongman Gen Sani Abacha (now late) from transforming into a civilian ruler. Known as the Group of 34 and led by a former civilian vice president, Alex Ekwueme, they challenged Abacha’s plan to run as sole candidate in elections planned for 1998. With Abacha’s sudden death that year and preparations by his successor, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, to hold elections to end military rule, the group metamorphosed into a political party, the PDP, after teaming up with other political groupings. These included one led by retired military generals such as Ibrahim Babangida, a former military ruler. The military elements, mainly Muslim northerners, were to become the most powerful block in the party. And it was this faction that recruited Obasanjo after his release from jail, where he had been consigned by Abacha, to run for the presidency. Prior to his election in 1999, Obasanjo’s experience in government had been as a military ruler in the 1970s. Without a background in partisan politics, he lacked the political structures vital for mediating relationships among competing interest groups in his party and the wider polity. He now found himself having to fall back on the structures set up by his backers. "Obasanjo was evidently uncomfortable with the restraints imposed by his political dependence," said Adewumi. "And he was quick to try to break away from them." Most analysts blame much of the instability that has rocked the party on Obasanjo’s efforts to assert his authority over a motley crowd. In three years there have been two speakers of the lower house and three presidents of the Senate. The same period has also seen three different chairmen presiding over the affairs of the party. There is now widespread disaffection in the ruling party for a wide variety of reasons. Apart from some of Obasanjo’s former backers from the north who - irked by his stance against the misuse of government patronage - turned against him, a number of party loyalists have been put off by what they saw as his brusque style, accusing him of being authoritarian. Some PDP founding members who left last year have teamed up with the three new political parties registered to contest the upcoming polls. According to newspaper reports, 16 of the PDP’s 69 senators have concluded plans to join another party. Many other members have been reported to be in discussions with other parties in the ongoing political realignment. These reportedly include Ekuweme, who lost to Obasanjo in party primaries for the 1999 elections and is known to be still keen on running for president. With less than a year of the PDP’s four-year mandate left to go, the challenges to national cohesion loom large. Ethnic and religious hostilities which unfolded across the country as Obasanjo took power remain intractable, the economy is in the doldrums, and political violence cannot be ruled out. Many Nigerians are apprehensive, wondering if peaceful elections can be guaranteed. "The political scene is in confusion and turmoil," Nwankwo told IRIN. "The outlook for the elections remains very uncertain. I’m not sure anybody can tell where we’re going."