Rebels divided over peace negotiations

When Jean Minani, the Speaker of the National Assembly, said he would bring about a ceasefire within three months following the formation of the country's transitional government on 1 November 2001, he did not evoke much optimism. "If there is no ceasefire in place," he said six months later, "it is not because I do not want it. It is because I am not a belligerent, and I have no power over belligerents." Shortly after Minani delivered his forecast, the rebel Forces nationales de liberation (FNL) and Force pour la defense de la democratie (FDD), the latter being the armed wing of the Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie (CNDD), intensified attacks around the capital, Bujumbura, and laid deadly ambushes along the country's major roads. These armed Hutu groups were not party to the peace agreement between the pro-Hutu and pro-Tutsi parties signed in Arusha, Tanzania, on 28 August 2001. Under that accord, the current president, Pierre Buyoya, a Tutsi, leads the transitional government for the first 18 months of a three-year term, after which a Hutu will replace him for the second half of the term. The FNL and FDD have their reasons for not ending the war. The FNL and the faction of the CNDD-FDD led by Peter Nkurunziza say Buyoya's government is avoiding direct talks with them, and is instead involved in "pseudo-negotiations" with non-belligerent groups. But Cyrille Ndayirukiye, Burundi's defence minister, says the FNL rebels do not want a negotiated ceasefire, because they believe this would be tantamount to conceding defeat. Another obstacle to ceasefire negotiations is constituted by the divisions within the rebel groups. The FNL and CNDD-FDD have experienced two "internal coups" since they were established. Peter Nkurunziza leads one of the FDD's factions and Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye the other. Although talks between the government and Ndayikengurukiye's faction are at an advanced stage, there has not yet been any contact with that of Nkurunziza. Exploratory talks with Ndayikengurukiye's faction took place at the beginning of May in Pretoria, South Africa. After they ended, Nkurunziza called for the replacement of South African Deputy-President Jacob Zuma as mediator in the ceasefire talks. Nkurunziza called on the Tanzanian government to organise talks between the "real belligerents" (meaning the FNL and his CNDD-FDD faction) and the army, which, according to the CNDD-FDD says wields the real power. After talks with the Tanzanian government in mid-June, Nkurunziza's faction agreed to engage in cease-fire negotiations with the political and military leaders of Burundi. Such negotiations have yet to be held. Col Leonidas Nijimbere, Buyoya's adviser on military affairs, says the government prefers to negotiate with "all rebel factions instead of one". The FNL, believed to be very close politically and militarily to Nkurunziza's faction, has not yet stated whether it would join Nkurunziza's faction in talks. The Burundian media have reported that the FNL leader, Agathon Rwasa, died of wounds sustained during an exchange of fire with allies of the FNL spokesman, Alain Mugabarabona, resulting from a disagreement over holding talks with the government. However, the FNL says he is still alive. However, be that as it may, FNL's internal problems are believed to be an obstacle to progress in cease-fire talks. Nkurunziza, who overthrew Ndayikengurukiye, says that the latter has no fighting forces in the country and cannot, therefore, participate in the search for peace. There is fear in Bujumbura that negotiations which exclude any rebel group - be it weak or strong - may serve to prolong the war, because such a group could later claim that it had not taken part in earlier negotiations, just as Nkurunziza's faction is now doing. This kind of exclusion has in the past left rebel officials feeling cheated, because, they say, their pursuit of the war is what has forced the government to make concessions. "The problem between Frodebu [Front pour la democratie au Burundi] and rebel officials is that rebels believe that the seat occupied by [Hutu Vice-President] Domitien Ndayizeye is theirs," a senior government official, who as asked not to be named, told IRIN. Rebels want talks with the government aimed at "solving the fundamental questions which brought about all the current problems: the dignity, rights and justice of the Hutu people who have been massacred and oppressed for centuries", the FNL has stated. However, analysts believe Hutu rebels want more than just talks. They believe the rebels want to be part of a different government - one to be formed following talks with the current transitional government. "They want to enjoy the fruits of their labour, and not to be mere spectators," one analyst told IRIN. But if the rebels have not stopped fighting by May 2003, when Buyoya's term ends, he might feel compelled to remain in power, thereby extending the term of the transitional government, analysts say.