Muted opposition reaction to KANU-NDP merger

For the past three weeks, Kenyan newspapers have been replete with reports about the merger between the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and the National Development Party (NDP), but the opposition's reaction to it has been low-key. What appears to have interested the opposition more is the recent announcement by the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC) that it will be unable to have a new constitution in place within the year as previously planned.

The CKRC said in a statement on Wednesday 27 March that it could not conduct constituency hearings, draft a report and circulate a draft bill on the constitution for national debate by October, in time for general elections scheduled to be held by December.

There has been keen media speculation since that CKRC chairman, Professor Yash Pal Ghai, was "hijacked" by other members of the commission and about the potential effect the CKRC announcement could have on the holding of elections, reform of electoral laws or an extension of the life of parliament.

Meanwhile, the 18 March meeting at Kasarani Stadium in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, at which the formation of the "New KANU" was announced, highlighted the confidence and strength of the new line-up as another challenge facing the opposition. Once again, the opposition finds itself having to react to what the ruling party does instead of creating its own agenda and momentum, according to political analysts.

Perceiving this shortcoming, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) chairman and Ugenya MP, James Orengo, cautioned his colleagues, at a rally at Busia in western Kenya on 25 March, against procrastinating in countering the challenge.

However, a political science lecturer from Nairobi university, who requested anonymity, told IRIN that Kasarani was just a beginning, and there were still too many unknowns for the opposition to want to reveal its hand just yet.

"We still have possible extensions of time for both the Constitutional Review Committee and the life of parliament," this source stated. "It is difficult to know how the many disparate elements in the New KANU will settle down as the politics of this election year develop."

Some observers believe that all is not lost for the opposition but that it is, in fact, ahead of where it was at the same stage of the 1997 elections.

There are indications that the recently formed coalition, entitled the National Alliance for Change (NAC), is gradually coalescing, according to observers of the Kenyan political scene. A committee of 12 members of the main opposition parties are reportedly working out a power-sharing formula, details of which are expected to be announced on Thursday, 4 April.

At present, the NAC comprises the Democratic Party (DP), the National Party of Kenya (NPK), Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (FORD-K) and the smaller FORD-Asili.

The DP chairman, Mwai Kibaki, an economist who was finance minister and vice-president during both the Kenyatta and Moi administrations, is the now the official leader of the opposition in parliament. The DP was established 10 years ago and has been holding regular party elections. Its main support comes from the central Kikuyu, Meru and Embu areas, but it also has some strength in the Akamba heartland southeast of Nairobi.

The NPK was formed last year, with its membership mainly from Eastern Province. Its leader,
Charity Ngilu, is the only woman heading a political party in Kenya. Born in Machakos District, she started her career as a secretary in the Central Bank of Kenya, and is now a businesswoman. She fared surprisingly well as a presidential candidate in the 1997 election, garnering some 400,000 votes.

FORD-Kenya, led by Michael Wamalwa Kijana - who, like some of KANU's "Young Turks", is from a
political family - was the original major opposition party established in 1991 under Raila
Odinga's late father, Oginga Odinga. Today, it largely represents some major groups of the Luhya people.

Joe Kadhi, a veteran journalist who currently works for the East African Standard, attributed the opposition's failure to unite in the past largely to selfishness, telling IRIN that "opposition leaders seem to care more about acquisition of personal power than they do about the will of the people".

There has also been a consistent fear among the country's smaller tribes of being swamped by larger neighbouring groups, according to Kadhi. In addition, it had taken some time for the practice of multiparty democracy to free itself from the constraints of the one-party state, he said.

The NAC has now gathered several ethnic groups under its umbrella - the Kikuyu, Wameru, Embu, Akamba and the Luhya - and both Kibaki and Kijana announced, at a fund-raising meeting in Kakamega in western Kenya on 24 March, that they had made a legal pledge to be bound by the coalition agreement.

Political observers believe that when the NAC declares itself publicly, this may well give the same kind of boost to the Opposition campaign that the KANU/NDP merger appears to have given the ruling coalition.

Other important figures in the opposition are James Orengo, Simeon Nyachae and Kenneth Matiba.
Orengo, perhaps the most radical of Kenya's politicians and a strong opponent of Raila Odinga in
the southwestern province of Nyanza, was recently elected chairman of the SDP and is slated to be its presidential candidate. He has become prominent in parliament as a leading orator.

Simeon Nyachae is the FORD-People presidential aspirant. The son of a former senior chief in Kisii, southwestern Kenya, he entered the civil service as a district officer in 1961 and went on to be become the service's chief secretary. On retirement, he joined KANU and gained appointment as a cabinet minister. His last post in the Moi administration was that of finance minister. He resigned from the government in 1999 after being offered a less significant ministry as the result of a reshuffle.

After various defections since 1992 - the year of the first multiparty elections - Kenneth Matiba is now chairman of the Saba Saba Asili opposition party, which is currently holding its national grass-roots elections.

At independence, Matiba was permanent secretary in the education ministry and, after entering politics, he was first appointed health minister and then transport and communications minister, from which post he resigned in 1988. Matiba subsequently became the leader of those opposed to the one-party system. He was detained in 1990, and suffered a severe stroke while in prison, the after-effects of which still trouble him today.

The multiparty system was introduced in December 1991 and Matiba was a leading contender for the presidency in the 1992 election. He is considered unlikely to stand as a presidential candidate again, given that he has repeatedly expressed total dissatisfaction with the electoral arrangements in Kenya, claiming that these are inevitably rigged in the incumbent's favour.

The NAC is expected to continue to woo those opposition groups still outside the coalition in an effort to establish unity and challenge the power of the Kenya African National Union, which has been in power - just recently with the NDP - since independence in 1963.