Government comfort leaves CUF at odds

The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party has declared itself satisfied with ongoing political talks between it and the opposition Civic United Front (CUF), which were being "guided by trust and openness."

After a meeting of the CCM executive council in the Tanzanian capital, Dar es Salaam, late last week, the party issued a statement saying that the political talks were going well, and that the parties had agreed on certain issues that would enhance peace, tranquility and brotherhood in the country, Radio Tanzania reported.

However, according to senior sources within the Tanzanian opposition, the current discussions are achieving nothing. "CCM is just playing for time but they are not prepared to offer any compromise," one such figure told IRIN.

The talks, at Secretary-General level of the two parties, began earlier this year and are intended, in particular, to find a solution to the political crisis in the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar following last October’s parliamentary and presidential elections. The opposition has refused to recognise the results and is boycotting parliament.

The talks between the two main parties were organised following bloody political clashes on 27 January. Already soured by CUF's objections to the so-called "stolen elections" of 1995, relations deteriorated further when CUF staged a demonstration rejecting the outcome of parliamentary and presidential elections in October last, which were widely believed to have been compromised.

According to official figures, 23 people were killed by the Tanzanian security forces in the opposition stronghold of Pemba, second largest of the Zanzibari islands, after Unguja (frequently known simply as Zanzibar). According to human rights bodies like Amnesty International, the number of deaths was probably considerably higher.

The killings took place when villagers decided to stage a protest march - declared illegal by the government - against the outcome of the October 2000 elections, which attracted international criticism. The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) blamed the Zanzibar Electoral Commission for "throwing Zanzibar into a political crisis which could have been avoided if the ZEC was fully alive to its responsibilities".

In the aftermath of the political clashes and the security forces' heavy-handed response, hundreds of opposition supporters fled Pemba as refugees to the coastal town of Shimoni, eastern Kenya. [for related stories, go to: http://www.reliefweb.int/IRIN/archive/tanzania.phtml]

The political crisis led to a severe downturn in the Zanzibari economy, which is heavily reliant on tourism. Several western embassies advised their nationals not to travel to the Isles. Casual workers were laid off in the main hotels for a period that started well before the normal rainy season in April-May.

However, tourism has bounced back and, during the current tourist high season, there is clear evidence that Zanzibar’s beaches are again attracting many visitors.

The talks between ruling party and opposition mainly concentrate on modalities for the implementation of the Commonwealth Agreement of 1999. This ‘mwafaka’ (Kiswahili for agreement) was hailed in Zanzibar as an opportunity to break the political deadlock brought about by the flawed elections of 1995, the opposition boycotting of parliament and the treason trial of CUF activists.

The Commonwealth agreement envisaged, among other measures, the reform of electoral laws, Zanzibar Electoral Commission and the judiciary on Zanzibar.

For implementation of the agreement, the CCM favours a supervisory body to be appointed by the president, while CUF wants a government of national unity. Other points of contention include CUF’s request for an independent inquiry into the killings of 27 January and its demand for a rerun of the general elections.

In mid-July, CUF chairman Professor Ibrahim Lipumba said the political talks were the only means of bringing about democracy in the country, but said CUF must be told the outcome by 31 July. If the CCM dragged out the dialogue, as it had by causing the postponement of various sessions, CUF would withdraw and let its members decide the way forward, Lipumba said.

"CUF is in an awkward position," said one diplomatic observer. "It’s extremely unlikely to get any of its main demands but the only leverage it has is letting its supporters back onto the streets, which would lead inevitably to violence."

News from the talks, being held in a hotel in Dar es Salaam, comes only in trickles, leaving the media frustrated and Zanzibaris extremely anxious. The CUF leadership is finding it increasingly difficult to constrain more radical elements in the party. Youth and local party leaders on Pemba have already, more than once, indicated clearly that that they are fed up with waiting. Their mistrust of CCM is huge; they expect no results. And the leadership of CUF does face a deadline: how long members’ patience will hold.

Back in October last year, after the elections, there were indications of possible compromise. The new President of Zanzibar, Abeid Karume, son of the country’s first president in the 1960s, acted to remove one of the most contentious issues in Zanzibar: the case against 18 CUF activists accused of treason - an armed attempt to take power in Zanzibar - was dropped when the government’s chief attorney had no evidence to present. The prisoners were all released after three years' detention.

But Karume has limited room for further compromise, according to political commentators in Tanzania. He became the CCM presidential candidate for Zanzibar only through the support of central committee members of the CCM organisation on the mainland. His party in Zanzibar is still dominated by hardliners and, even though he has removed them from their most government positions, he still relies on them for support within the party.

Visits by CUF leaders like Seif Hamad and Ibrahim Lipumba to Europe to drum up support in the donor capitals have, until now, not led to an increased pressure upon the Union [Tanzanian mainland and Isles] government to compromise. Donors have not been willing to use the aid stick against Tanzania, which has recently qualified for debt relief from international institutions under their Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative.

Political analysts say CCM is, therefore, in no hurry to compromise, and some believe President Benjamin Mkapa is just spinning the talks out in order to seen to be engaging in dialogue and to keep favour with the international community.

Meanwhile, key figures in the donor community of Dar es Salaam have been arguing for a resumption of aid to Zanzibar, which was suspended by the European Union (EU) and others following the flawed elections of 1995.

The UNDP has already organised a donor–government forum on development strategies for Zanzibar, the argument being that poverty and unemployment are some of the main causes of political unrest, and that a boost of long-term development money for the Zanzibar authorities would help stabilise the political situation.

The donor community also took a very favourable view of development in Tanzania at the donor-government Consultative Group meeting in Dar es Salaam on Friday and Saturday (7-8 September), endorsing government development programmes that gave priority to issues of governance, prudent management of public finances and private sector development, and pledging some US $1.1 billion in funding.

That, too, will have pleased the Tanzanian authorities, leaving their negotiations with CUF out of the picture, according to regional analysts.