Peace in Congo may prolong war in Burundi

The start of the withdrawal of belligerent forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the deployment of UN troops has led to a glimmer of hope for peace in the war-ravaged country. But this peace could mean continued war for Burundi. Regional observers point out that peace in the DRC may be at the expense of peace in neighbouring Burundi. Implementation of the 1999 Lusaka peace accord for the DRC - which provides for the disarmament of Burundian and Rwandan rebel forces - could deepen the crisis in Burundi, making it difficult to implement that country’s peace agreement, signed in Arusha, Tanzania, last August. The Arusha accord - signed by 19 negotiating sides including the government and opposition parties - has been rejected by DRC-based Burundian armed rebel groups who have, instead, increased their violent activities throughout Burundi. In one of the strongest challenges to the government since the civil war broke out in 1993, one of the groups, the Forces nationales de liberation (FNL) attacked the mostly-Hutu inhabited Kinama suburb of Bujumbura in February, claiming it was “ready to capture the capital”. Thousands of people fled their homes and there were numerous casualties in two weeks of fighting. Though the rebels were eventually repulsed by the armed forces, one army officer admitted that “rebels have been entering massively and we have been obliged to use heavy artillery to dislodge them”. Concern is now mounting in Burundi. In accordance with the Lusaka agreement, the warring sides (Rwanda, Uganda and their rebel allies on one side and Zimbabwe, Angola, Namibia and the government on the other) are now pulling back from their frontlines in the DRC. Burundi rebels along with Rwandan Interahamwe militia and former Rwandan army soldiers (ex-FAR), who had been fighting alongside the Kinshasa government, believe they have no future in the DRC and could be captured by UN troops. According to the Lusaka agreement, the withdrawal of belligerent forces and the deployment of UN troops in the buffer zone should pave the way for identifying, locating, assembling, disarming and repatriating the so-called “negative forces”, based in the DRC. Consequently, Burundi rebel forces made up mainly of the Forces pour la defense de la democratie (FDD) and the FNL have been taking refuge in Burundi in large numbers, particularly in the northwest Kibira forest area. Burundian officials are afraid of an unfolding “nightmare scenario”, amid reports that the FDD and FNL have teamed up to launch a massive offensive on Bujumbura. Informed sources in Bujumbura told IRIN the new strategy appears to have been adopted at a recent FDD congress in the DRC city of Lubumbashi, to which the FNL was invited. “The situation is very serious and very worrying,” the sources said. “Kibira is becoming a huge powder-keg.” They warned that rebel forces from both Burundi and Rwanda were regrouping in Tanzania and trying to join their counterparts in Kibira. Recent heavy fighting in the central province of Gitega was not aimed at occupying parts of Gitega, but at opening up a route to the west, according to the sources. Regional politicians have queried DRC President Joseph Kabila’s intentions, claiming that while the international community is “courting him”, he is “encouraging heavily-armed rebels” to enter Burundi. Kabila has denied the presence of Burundian rebels on Congolese territory, and instead has called on Burundian army troops to leave his country. Burundi maintains it has troops along the border to protect its security interests. Diplomats in the Rwandan capital Kigali say that the establishment of a strong Hutu movement in Burundi will lead to a parallel situation in Rwanda - Kabila’s aim being to weaken the Rwandan leadership. According to the diplomats, the real battle has always been between Rwanda and Congo, with Kigali seeking to place its “own man” in Kinshasa. Rwanda was apparently taken by surprise when Joseph’s father - the late Laurent-Desire Kabila - put up a strong resistance. “[Joseph] Kabila is biding his time, trying to outsmart them [Rwanda and Burundi] diplomatically while strengthening his grip on power, building up a national army and improving the economy,” one diplomat said. “In the meantime, the low-intensity fighting will continue.” Rebels of the Rwanda-backed Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie (RCD-Goma) in eastern Congo have discounted Burundi’s worries. “Burundi and Rwanda anti-government forces currently attacking Burundi are trying to make a last-ditch attempt because they are about to be disarmed,” RCD security chief Bizima Karaha commented. Burundi’s President Pierre Buyoya has refused to implement the Arusha agreement, which provides for transitional institutions, until a ceasefire is in place. Opposition members, both Tutsi and Hutu, believe this is a pretext to cling to power. Although a process is underway for direct talks between Buyoya and rebel FDD leader Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye in Libreville, Gabon, the situation currently appears to be at an impasse, analysts point out. “Even if the Lusaka accord succeeds, this does not mean the end of war in the Great Lakes region,” one diplomat noted.