Special report on elections

Sweat runs down forty-nine-year-old Seyed Bilal Shah's shirt as he quickly shakes a sea of extended hands and offers a few words on democracy at yet another public gathering. He has plenty of popular support but he's struggling against the odds in a country where the ballot box has changed little since independence 55 years ago. Running for a provincial assembly seat in Peshawar, the capital of the North West Frontier Province, he is making every effort to get elected whatever it takes. As his frantic campaign reaches a peak, he attends dozens of funerals and weddings besides addressing numerous public meetings around his urban constituency to drum up support. "Elected representatives can better resolve people’s problems," Shah told IRIN. "They are close to people and are also trusted.". Pakistan, a nation of 140 million people, is going to the polls next week to elect national and provincial legislatures that should lead to a new civilian government after three years of military rule. But for many the Pakistani military's entrenched position in politics mean the election will be a sham. Despite the cynicism, more than 12,000 candidates affiliated to over 80 political parties are jostling for some 1,200 seats in the national and provincial assemblies. Although the country’s military-led government is presenting the elections as a return to sustainable democracy, mixed signals are emerging as to whether the country’s seemingly endless political crisis could finally be resolved by holding this election. Shah is affiliated to the Awami National Party (ANP) a regional ethno-nationalist grouping demanding greater autonomy for the provinces. His allegiance to the ANP dates back to early 1970 when he was a schoolboy; loyalties matter a great deal in Pakistani politics. Although his election office - a hujra or traditional male quarter - was thronged by supporters, not all of them were enthusiastic about the outcome of the elections. "Even if we elect the best people, they can’t do anything," one supporter told IRIN. Such pessimism pervades the atmosphere in the run-up to the elections. Pakistani polls have always been accompanied by great fanfare, but such enthusiasm is clearly missing this time round. Despite the grandiose claims of Pakistan’s military ruler, Gen Pervez Musharraf, to put the country back on track towards "true democracy", the various electoral laws and recent constitutional changes in the run-up to the poll are widely resented. In July Musharraf announced he will retain the right to sack the Prime Minister and dissolve parliament as he sees fit. This is partly why cynical politicians, experts and observers are predicting the establishment of "a military-controlled democracy". Exiled leaders Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, former prime ministers and leaders of the country’s two large mainstream political parties - the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Group - have been banned from contesting the elections. Scores of other politicians have been disqualified either because they were convicted in the accountability drive or simply because they were non-graduates - in a country where only one percent have had the privilege of a university education. Pakistan has spent nearly half its time since independence in 1947 under military rule. Now the army has amended the constitution to give it a permanent role in the running of the country. A military-dominated National Security Council with overriding powers will watch future civilian governments. "It will be a transition from democratic dictatorship to an elected essence of democracy," Musharraf told reporters in the course of defending the changes. He won a controversial referendum in April to extend his term for another five years. "Democratic processes were always hampered by military’s interventions," Fazle Rahim Marwat, an expert on Pakistani politics at Peshawar University, told IRIN. "The constitution was never respected, and it was changed in the name of necessity," he said, in the course of listing the challenges facing democracy in the country. Marwat maintained that the constitutional and political crises were further exacerbated by the inability of the judiciary - especially the higher constitutional courts, which were never seen as independent and impartial - to act in the interests of the nation by defending the constitution. Earlier this week Musharraf also warned a 52-member European Union (EU) observer mission against making comments ahead of the 10 October polls. The warning followed the publication of an EU internal report criticising the political manoeuvring that had kept Bhutto and Sharif out of the election process. Civil society organisations monitoring the process have similar concerns and findings. "No individual has the right to amend the constitution," Husain Naqi, the national coordinator for election monitoring with the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, told IRIN from the eastern city of Lahore. "In the presence of discriminatory laws, the process is far from being free and fair." Naqi maintained that the military government’s close cooperation with the US-led coalition against terrorism was resented by Pakistanis, because it was widely believed that Musharraf's rule was being prolonged by American patronage. "Every dictator in this county had American backing," he said. Political ideas and programmes have little impact in a country where only about one person in three can read and write. Candidates are allotted symbols instead of printing their names on ballot papers, such measures being essential in rural areas where illiteracy rates are high. The nation's poor democratic record with the army regularly deposing elected administrations has also done nothing to help build confidence in the elctoral process in Pakistan. Citizens often vote for their own kinfolk. Caste, clan and class are often the motivating factors in voting, rather than a politician's track record or ideological position. Buying votes for hard cash or in return for food has been widespread in past elections. Politicians in Pakistan are a desperate breed. Despite their distaste in most cases for what they see as a flawed process, most have little choice apart from contesting elections because boycotts in the past have achieved nothing but marginalisation. "We are participating in line with a strategy to restore democracy," Abdur Rahim Mandokhel, the leader of Pakistan Oppressed Nationalities Movement, a seven-party alliance of smaller regional political parties, told IRIN from the southwestern city of Quetta. Mandokhel maintained that his movement was concerned about pre-poll rigging efforts, such as demarcation of new electoral constituencies, disqualifications, the formation of new political parties and the administration’s support of some candidates against others. "Even to think that the elections will be absolutely free and fair is wrong," he said. However, the Election Commission of Pakistan does not share such views. "Fair and transparent elections will be held on time," Ghazni Khan, the director of public relations with the commission, told IRIN. "The arrangements for thorough and foolproof elections are under way," he said, Khan added that the delimitations in the constituencies and the increase in number of parliamentary seats and qualifications for contesting elections, were effected with set procedures. "Everything is done in accordance with the laws of the country. No one can challenge that," he asserted. Meanwhile, Shah‘s election campaign has moved to another neighbourhood where he is due to address a night gathering of the city's underclass. Despite the tight limitations already in place for the upcoming legislature and civilian government, he is optimistic. "Democracy in all forms is better than dictatorship," he said.