IRIN Special Report on Rapprochement with the Taliban

The reality of Afghanistan is often difficult to swallow. A country ravaged by years of war - not to mention drought, poverty and hunger - Afghanistan is effectively ruled by the Taliban Islamic Movement of Afghanistan. That the Taliban controls up to 95 percent of Afghan territory is disputed by few, yet the legitimacy of the Taliban administration in Kabul is recognised by just three states: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Notwithstanding that fact, there is a recent change in attitude towards the Taliban among Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbours and, for those who speculate, perhaps also among some western governments. This does not necessarily represent acceptance of the authority of the Taliban’s regime: the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, but rather a pragmatic understanding that the Taliban movement is the major socio-political force in Afghanistan today, and that any solution to the Afghan conflict must include it. On 2 November, US American Ambassador to Pakistan William Milam met the Taliban’s ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Salem Zaeef, in the Pakistani capital Islamabad. Their meeting was short and cordial, and viewed by many as “a courtesy call” by one diplomat to another. Although details of their discussions were elusive, the broader message being sent was even more so. Had the time come for dialogue between the US and the movement that controls Afghanistan? The US has bitterly opposed recognition of the Taliban internationally, successfully lobbying against the movement assuming Afghanistan’s seat at the UN this year. [The UN General Assembly seat for Afghanistan is still held by the deposed former president, Burhanuddin Rabbani.] It has worked hard to maintain international sanctions on the Taliban - primarily in an effort to secure the extradition of Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden, whom it alleges is responsible for the 1998 bombing of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Central Asia analyst Barnett Rubin of the Centre on International Cooperation at New York University, USA, dismissed the view that the US-Taliban meeting might represent a policy change, telling IRIN on Wednesday last that such relations were hardly new, nor did they reflect any sign of a softening in the US position. “On the contrary, the US and Russia have agreed on a proposal to increase sanctions against the Taliban, and are campaigning for it to be adopted by the UN Security Council,” Rubin said. “For some reason, every time a westerner meets with a representative of the Taliban, someone seizes on it as a sign of a change of policy, apparently unaware that western diplomats have always met with Taliban representatives - from the first appearance of the movement.” [The Taliban has held meetings with numerous western envoys in Islamabad, including those of Britain, Canada and Germany, according to diplomatic sources.] However, the position of Afghanistan’s neighbours in Central Asia is entirely different, according to Rubin. For some of these, who had vehemently opposed the Taliban, the diplomatic stance in recent weeks has been far more pragmatic - a softening of position which would have been scarcely imaginable a few months ago, he said. Dr Olivier Roy of the National Centre of Scientific Research in France echoed the same idea when he told ‘Azadi Afghan radio’ in an interview on 8 November: “I see a strategic realignment in Central Asia now among the new republics. Tajikistan has supported commander [Ahmad Shah] Masood against the Taliban, and is itself supported by the Russians and Iranians. On the other hand, Uzbekistan - a country that was until recently was very much opposed to the Taliban - has mended fences with them and is beginning some rapprochement with the Taliban.” Most of Afghanistan’s largely secular Central Asian neighbours have long accused the Taliban of funding and harbouring Islamic militants which threaten regional stability. In an interview with IRIN on 8 November, Taliban Ambassador Abdul Salam Zaeef denied this, saying that Uzbekistan and others now understood such claims to be “exaggerated Russian propaganda”. After an October meeting of a six-nation grouping of Central Asian states, all signatories of a collective security agreement, Uzbek President Islam Karimov was quoted by news sources as saying that the Taliban did not represent a threat to his country. “We might not like them, but this force has become the dominating one and we don’t need any escalation, conflicts or wars,” Karimov said. Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov later said his government was ready to open the Afghan-Uzbek border, and to forge friendly ties with the Taliban authorities if the situation in Afghanistan stabilised. Uzbekistan, in particular, is in a quandary, according to Barnett Rubin. “It would like to block the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) [reportedly trained and supported by the Taliban], but without increasing the Russian military presence or influence in the area. Therefore, Tashkent might like to explore whether the Taliban might be willing to rein in the IMU in return for something, whether recognition or something else,” he said. However, “Karimov made his statement in October about accepting the Taliban as a reality without consulting or informing other officials, and the [Uzbek] government is confused about its policy,” Rubin added. Kazakhstan, too, “is willing to establish contacts and hold talks with representatives of all movements and groups in Afghanistan, including the Taliban,” according to President Nursultan Nazarbayev, quoted by news sources during a visit to the Kazakh capital Astana by Pakistan’s ruler General Pervez Musharraf on 6 November. Kazakh Foreign Minister Nurlan Idrisov later said the softer line was based on pragmatism. “Kazakhstan has no allergy towards any single group in Afghanistan. All we want is a government which can bring the country to peace, and bring it into the international community as a fully-fledged member,” he said. Asked about the official stance of Kazakhstan towards Afghanistan, the First Secretary at the Kazakh embassy in Islamabad, Toleugazy Abzhanov, told IRIN on Thursday: “Kazakhstan calls for the formation of a broad based multi-ethnic representative coalition government, acceptable to all Afghans. Kazakhstan stands for the unconditional end of interference in the internal affairs of Afghanistan; this is a prerequisite to the settlement of the Afghan issue. And political dialogue between the warring sides should be held under the auspices of the UN.” Kazakhstan is a member of the ‘Shanghai Five’, a regional security and cooperation grouping established in 1996 between China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Russia in an effort to tackle international terrorism, drugs, contraband weapons and illegal immigration among other issues. “The main problems for the Shanghai Five come from Afghanistan and the war there,” Abzhanov told IRIN. “Of course they [the Kazakhs] are talking to the Taliban, and accepting them as more of a reality to see if any accommodation is possible, but one should not exaggerate the importance of a few meetings,” said regional analyst Barnett Rubin. Russia has long maintained that the Taliban is a threat to regional stability. Asked to what extent the movement posed a threat to Russian interests, Andrei Kortunov, a leading Russian international security affairs expert, said in an interview with EuroasiaNet on 14 November: “There are political forces in Russia, and some local leaders and journalists, who tend to be apocalyptic about the Taliban and their potential march through Central Asia. They have their own domino theories about Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and some go as far as to state that this form of Islamic fundamentalism might reach Russia proper.” According to Kortunov, “Russia is ‘a status quo power’ in Central Asia: it would prefer to see only gradual change.” While Russia remains adamantly opposed to the Taliban Islamic Movement, it too is softening its rhetoric. “We are for settlement in Afghanistan. We want the two sides to sit down at the table and begin negotiations... Only a broad-based government in Afghanistan can settle this situation,” said Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Eduard Shevchenko at a press conference in Islamabad on 15 November. But the Russian view is particularly ‘pragmatic’, according to diplomatic sources. Asked if Shevchenko’s remarks meant a major change of policy, the Russian Federation Press Secretary in Islamabad Yevgeny Griva told IRIN that nothing had changed, and yet something had. “We still do not recognise the Taliban. Nonetheless, we have to be realistic here as they do control 95 percent of Afghan territory and undoubtedly will be the dominant force in any new government.” While the international community does not officially recognise the Taliban regime, recent diplomatic shifts and rhetoric indicate recognition of its importance to any lasting peace in Afghanistan. As one diplomat told IRIN: “The Taliban is a reality we have to deal with and, until we do so, there will be no end to the pain and suffering of the Afghan people, now or in the future.”