Prospects for coalition led by former king

Pir Seyed Ahmad Gailani, leader of the National Islamic Front of Afghanistan (NIFA), one of the seven Afghan mujahidin factions from the 1980s which led the insurgency against troops from the former Soviet Union, has called a meeting of a number of Afghan groups in Peshawar, for next Sunday (21 October). Pir Gailani, known for his support for Mohammad Zahir Shah, the former king, hopes to create a new coalition to bring about national unity in Afghanistan. The prospective coalition members are expected to include representatives of some of the Afghan mujahidin factions from the 1980s, along with a representative of the former king. The arrival in Islamabad of Hidayat Amin Arsala, representative of the king, ahead of the meeting, has strengthened speculation that Pakistan, once averse to the king, now stands ready to support a new government to be led by him. In a meeting on Monday with Abdul Sattar, Pakistan's foreign minister, Arsala is believed to have said that a future Afghan government would protect Pakistan's interests in Afghanistan. Additionally, according to sources in NIFA, Pir Gailani is seeking the support of the "good Taliban" - a reference to moderates within the Taliban regime who would be prepared to break away from Mullah Mohammad Omar, the reclusive Taliban leader known for his hardline policies, such as prohibiting women from engaging in most professions. This latest initiative to restore Afghanistan's monarchy is primarily driven by the interest in the establishment of a stable government capable of rescuing the country from years of destruction and continuing uncertainty. It is this uncertainty which has triggered frequent rounds of fighting between rival Afghan groups struggling to seize power. It has also been at the centre of concern on the part of donors over the prospect of large-scale economic assistance going to waste in the wake of political rifts. Humanitarian and relief agencies will need improved security conditions as a first prerequisite to launch large-scale operations in Afghanistan, especially ahead of the onset of winter. A stable government representing a cross section of Afghans and headed by the former king is proposed by his supporters as a first step towards establishing internal order in the country, followed by efforts to put in place a national army and police force to re-establish order. The apparent correlation between the effort to back the former king on the one hand and the appalling humanitarian conditions obtaining in Afghanistan on the other, is reinforced by the country's adverse economic conditions. According to the UN Development Programme (UNDP), with an average life expectancy of about 40 and a mortality rate of about 26 per cent for children under five, Afghanistan is one of the world's most destitute countries. Of the world's 187 countries, only seven have a life expectancy lower than Afghanistan's. "The country's social and economic indicators are comparable, or lower, than the indicators for Sub-Saharan Africa," Sakiko Fukuda-Parr, the director of UNDP's Human Development Report Office, said in a statement issued in New York on 8 October, While there are many compelling reasons for putting in place a unified Afghan government to oversee a large-scale relief and reconstruction effort, Afghanistan's political future depends in part on the outcome of the US-led military campaign. While the US appears to be aiming for an eventual removal of the Taliban, opinion is divided over the extent that an objective is achievable. "Even in the face of such destruction, many of the Taliban could go out into the country and continue fighting from there. There's no assurance that the destruction of the Taliban military machinery would not leave many of them heading in to the mountains to carry on fighting," a senior Pakistani official told IRIN. Other analysts warn that efforts to form a broad-based Afghan government have been made before, but failed to bring enduring peace to Afghanistan. "In the early 90s, there was such an attempt, but the different groups ended up fighting each other," said a senior Western diplomat. However, he acknowledged that "this time around after the terrorist attacks in the US, there would be more global interest to establish conditions so that violence within Afghanistan begins coming to an end". Such international commitment is taking shape in the context of a growing recognition that broad external support will be required for any future Afghan leadership. On 12 October, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan indicated that the UN's role in the country might be stepped up, and the UN Security Council has since met to discuss this in detail. According to experts, a UN mission with a strong mandate under the leadership of the recently reappointed Lakhdar Brahimi, would help an emergency Loya Jirgah - Supreme National Tribal Assembly - establish its legitimacy.