Change of tack since 11 September

The stunningly rapid developments in war-torn Afghanistan since 11 September have strongly impacted on its eastern neighbour, Pakistan, ending its isolation from the West and raising hopes for an economic recovery. However, analysts and aid workers also say what has happened has brought more refugees into the country, now hosting more than two million Afghans, and more drugs. "It's potentially the most important development in the country in the last 30 years," said Najam Sethi, editor and an analyst of Pakistani affairs. "It has forced Pakistan to make a new start," he told IRIN from Lahore, Pakistan's second-largest city and capital of Punjab Province. After 11 September, the US swiftly mounted what it said was an anti-terrorism campaign, targeting Saudi-born Osama bin Laden, whom it accused of masterminding the attacks, his Al-Qaeda (Al-Qa'idah) network and the hardline Islamic Taliban movement hosting them both in Afghanistan. The Taliban, supported solely by Pakistan, which withdrew its backing before the campaign was launched, were rapidly dismantled in the face of the intense military assault led by the US and forces of the opposition Northern Alliance. Pakistan, the last country to abandon the globally isolated Taliban, next extended its total support to the Washington-led coalition fighting terrorism worldwide. This support, strategically vital for Washington, earned President Pervez Musharraf's government strong condemnation from pro-Taliban Islamic groups in Pakistan, initially raising fears of a possible destabilisation of that government, which, however, proved unfounded. Islamic Militancy Sethi, editor of The Friday Times, a respected and popular weekly, said the events of 11 September had forced Pakistan to review its policy on Afghanistan, and this has led to the stemming of the rising tide of religious extremism in the country. Millions of Pakistanis are either members or supporters of Islamic groupings. Although not all these people were supporters of the Taliban, the US-led bombing of Afghanistan prompted many of them into seeing it as a war against Islam. However, most Pakistanis rejected calls by the Islamic groups to agitate and rally against Musharraf for his support for the US. Sethi said one aftermath of the rout of the Taliban from Afghanistan would be that these groups - who drew spiritual strength from the hardline regime - would come under pressure. A gradual and covert separation of state and religion could also take place, he added. Sethi said the policies pursued by the former military ruler, Gen Muhammad Ziaul Haq were not being reversed in total. "Zia's rule led to Islamic militancy and jihad [holy war]. Now that tide is turned too," Sethi said, explaining that Ziaul Haq had promoted Islamic militancy in the country, whereas Musharraf had decided to clamp down on the radical elements within the Islamic groups. "In a sense, in a very perverse way, it's a very positive development," Sethi said. Pakistan has been under the international spotlight for some years, accused by India of promoting terrorism and exporting Islamic radicalism. The nuclear tests of 1998 increased its isolation from the West. Sethi said the developments in Afghanistan and the government's decision to fully support the US-led coalition had reversed that trend. "Pakistan's isolation is coming to an end. Actually, it has not just ended, but it has been reversed." Paris Club Debt Rescheduling Sethi cited manifestations of the new trend were an increase in foreign aid to Pakistan and the reshaping and rescheduling of its debt and development loans from its bilateral and multilateral donors. Pakistan's Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz on 13 December signed an agreement with the Paris Club of creditors re-scheduling its 12.5 billion US dollar debt. Describing it as an unprecedented deal, Aziz told reporters in Paris that under the deal, two-thirds of Pakistan's debt had been re-sheduled for repayment over 38 years and the remaining third over 23 years, with 15-year and five-year grace periods respectively. The deal gives Pakistan a crucial fiscal breathing space. Sethi described the move as a means of enabling Pakistan to pursue economic growth, previously stunted by interest payments and tough IMF terms under which the fiscal deficit had to be kept below four percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Noted Pakistani economists, including Dr A. R. Kamal, who heads the government's Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, had always strongly opposed these IMF terms, arguing that if government spending remained constrained, no real economic growth could take place. But according to newspaper reports, the IMF, which approved a loan of US $1.3 billion this month, has also relaxed the country's fiscal deficit target. Sethi said he saw the Paris Club deal - the latest in a string of international concessions to help Pakistan's ailing economy - as a means of achieving a GDP of more than five percent in the coming years. Pakistan's GDP growth has up to now hovered between two to three percent annually, hardly exceeding its population growth rate. The government has already scaled down the GDP growth to between 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent from the target of 4 percent for the current fiscal year ending in June. Aziz says this is one of the results of the Afghan crisis, which has badly hit Pakistan's exports. "The reversal of the isolation [of Pakistan] is not just political. It is also economic," Sethi said. "We should see a rise in the economic growth rate now," he added. However, Sethi said, the new aid flows were linked with the country's social uplift and its development schemes. The money cannot be used for defence purposes or to finance government spending. "On the whole, I will say this was a very positive outcome," he said. Adverse Impact But not analysts agree with Sethi's optimism. Najam Rafique, a senior researcher at the Islamabad-based government's Institute of Strategic Studies who specialises in US affairs, told IRIN that there were some negative impacts on Pakistan resulting from the Afghanistan crisis, including the disbandment of Kashmiri militant groups, America's closer defence ties with India - with which Islamabad has fought three wars since gaining independence from Britain in 1947 - and the capping of the nuclear programme. "The Americans have signed an agreement with India on counter-terrorism and the training of special operation forces... The strategic partnership which (Bill) Clinton had talked about is now formalised," Rafique said adding that this would directly impact on the dozen or so Islamic militant groups operating in the Indian controlled part of the Kashmir region. Nuclear Concerns "Secondly Pakistan has come under tremendous pressure on its nuclear programme. It seems that Pakistan's nuclear programme has finally been capped, if not entirely rolled back," he added. Pakistan lifted the veil from its nuclear programme in 1998 by conducting several nuclear tests, weeks after India carried out nuclear tests. Both India and Pakistan were subjected to economic sanctions. Rafique said Pakistan's nuclear programme remains a security concern of the United States, which is questioning the links of Pakistani scientists with the Afghan Taliban and even Osama bin Laden. Pakistani government officials have said in the past that two retired nuclear scientists were questioned by the authorities over the activities of their NGO providing relief to Afghans in Afghanistan. The two scientists had also travelled into Afghanistan and had met the Taliban there. However, Pakistani authorities have repeatedly stated in public that the country's nuclear programme was in safe hands. Rafique said that in the wake of the Afghanistan crisis Pakistan's nuclear programme had become the target of an international spotlight, and efforts would be made to bring it under greater international control, efforts resisted by the government so far. "In spite of whatever official statements [emanating] from Washington, the United States does not trust Pakistan's nuclear programme, and that is not a good sign," he added. Indian Influence Rafique said another adverse development for Pakistan was the increasing influence of India on the proposed government in Afghanistan. Pakistan had been seen backing the Taliban in their fight against the Northern Alliance, which will now be a dominant member of the proposed interim administration set to take power in Afghanistan for six months from 22 December. The Alliance has maintained close links with India throughout the years of fighting against the Taliban. "Now India is going to be an active player in Afghanistan, and that is a bad omen [for Pakistan]. Pakistan is in a lose-lose situation," Rafique said. Sethi strongly disagreed. He said Pakistan's nuclear programme had already been capped voluntarily by the government, which had stated in the past that it would not be carrying out new tests or producing nuclear weapons. "I don't see any change there," Sethi said, adding that Pakistan had already got the nuclear weapons it required and that its nuclear programme was unendangered. US Engagement "Instead, the US will now engage in Pakistan more actively and constructively," Sethi said, and that he believed Washington might now sell nuclear safety devices to Islamabad, which it had been reluctant to do in the past because of the sanctions. All US sanctions, except those related to democracy, have been lifted. US's enthusiasm in once again improving ties with its cold war ally, Pakistan, were reflected in an address by Christina Rocca, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, to Pakistani businessmen in Washington. "This is a tremendously exciting time to be working on US-Pakistan relations. After a decade of seemingly inexorable drift away from each other, we are once again working together, closely and effectively, to achieve common goals," she said. "Last June, we began our efforts to start a broad-based, across the board re-engagement with Pakistan. At that time our relations with Pakistan were ensnared in a web of overlapping sanctions. We had decided to increase our aid to Pakistan... Most importantly, we had begun the process of recommending that the president waive the Glenn, Symington and Pressler Amendment sanctions on Pakistan," Rocca said. She said since 11 September, US engagement with Pakistan had accelerated dramatically. "The US has been engaged in three separate but closely linked efforts: to isolate and dismantle Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda organisation and its affiliates; to remove the Taliban regime that harboured Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups; and to restore freedom, prosperity and good governance to the people of Afghanistan. We greatly appreciate President Musharraf's bold and courageous decision to throw Pakistan's support firmly behind the coalition's efforts," Rocca added. Rocca said Pakistan's support for the coalition had opened up great new vistas for enhanced economic cooperation with the US, with Europe, with Japan, and with others - perhaps even with India and the region. She also said her government was looking at ways of providing Pakistani businessmen with more trade opportunities. "The challenge for us now is to put the past behind us, work together to resolve our remaining differences, and focus our efforts on new thinking, new approaches, new forms of cooperation," she added. Impact of Invisible Refugees The bombardment of the Taliban positions in Afghanistan has led to a massive displacement of already impoverished Afghans. According to the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, nearly 200,000 refugees entered Pakistan after 7 October. Some of these have returned, but many are still believed to be in the country. "When the bombardment started, people started fleeing towards Pakistan, and the borders were closed. Those who could, slipped into Pakistan through mule tracks or by far flung routes," Afrasiyab Khattak, chairman of Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, told IRIN on 10 December in an interview. "As they were not legal refugees, they scattered and went to relatives, friends and remained invisible. This increased the burden on our social fabric and deprived the international community of its ability to identify and assist these new refugees," he added. Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghans since the start of the jihad against Soviet troops in the 1980s. Pakistani officials say more than two million of them still live in Pakistan and that the country cannot host any more, citing lack of resources and security concerns. Drugs After 11 September, prices of narcotics in Pakistan fell sharply due to a massive upsurge of supplies from Afghanistan. According to Pakistani anti-drug officials, the price of heroin dropped to less than one dollar per gramme in the port city of Karachi, raising fears of a rise in consumption. Drug rehabilitation experts say traffickers have been dumping large quantities of heroin from stockpiles in Afghanistan. Last year a national assessment survey by the UN's Drug Control Programme estimated there were 500,000 heroin addicts in Pakistan, mostly men between the age of 25 to 35.