Interim administration faces key challenges

The proposed Afghan administration set to take up the reins of the country for six months from 22 December faces daunting challenges, analysts and officials say, cautioning against too much expectations from the new setup.

"There are many expectations about Afghanistan now... I will caution against too much expectations," Dr Babur Shah, a senior analyst at the Islamabad-based Institute of Strategic Studies, told IRIN on Thursday, two days before the new administration was to be installed in the Afghan capital, Kabul.

Landlocked Afghanistan has faced more than 20 years of bloody war, the worst drought in 30 years, now in its third year, and an intense military campaign led by the United States against the ousted Taliban for sheltering Osama bin Laden, the man Washington accuses of masterminding the 11 September attacks on the US.

Factional fighting, drought and the hardline Islamic policies of the Taliban created serious humanitarian problems, driving away millions of Afghans in the last 20 years and thereby creating a critical human resources shortage. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans are also internally displaced.

Shah, who specialises in Afghan affairs at the Pakistani government-run institute, said people should not have too much expectation from the interim government because of the past history of Afghanistan.

"The new administration will have to tread very carefully, be accommodative to others, and bring on board any major party which feels left out. They do not have to wait for six months to do that," Shah said. If General Abdul Rashid Dostum was unhappy with the set up, the new administration should address his concerns right away. "If they learn from the past and keep people happy, things can progress," Shah pointed out.

Shah said one of the key areas the new administration should address was improving the security situation in the country. Security was also crucial for aid operations by the United Nations and the nongovernmental organisations giving the impoverished people of Afghanistan lifeline support.
Hundreds of foreign relief workers are still unable to return to large parts of Afghanistan due to lack of security, hampering critical aid work for millions of Afghans dependent on food and other aid handouts.

Shah said security was also essential to enable Afghans living abroad to return to the country. "Anyone who is living in Europe or America - why would he return?" said Shah, stressing that reconstruction of the country depended on skilled Afghans to take part in the rebuilding of the country.

Shah said the new Afghan government would also have to curb the menace of warlordism, which has become an occupation in itself. "Any chief with a group of armed men becomes a warlord. Warlordism has become a business and for that instability is required, and therefore warlords want instability and not stability in the country," he added.

Shah said that although the challenges were far-reaching and numerous, one should not give up hope, and foreign nations should not forget Afghanistan as they did after former Soviet Union left the country.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has also underlined the need for global support to bring peace, security and stability in Afghanistan. "We face daunting challenges in Afghanistan, but today we need global support, and there is global support for that unhappy country," Annan said on Wednesday.

"Indeed, the people of Afghanistan have an unprecedented opportunity to begin anew, and to construct a state that defends their rights and their interests. We will still face a grave humanitarian challenge, as well as acute security problems that must be addressed," he told the annual year-end news conference at the UN headquarters in New York.

"But today there is also hope of a new, broad-based government, and a new effort to rehabilitate the country and set it on the path of development. The chance must not be missed - by Afghans, by their neighbours, or by the international community," Annan added.

Babur Shah said the international community must come forward with solid practical help, including financial aid so that infrastructure could be rebuilt and an administration run on proper lines restored.

Already there are indications that, apart from bilateral help, Afghanistan was also being offered assistance from the multilateral agencies, including the World Bank, though the size of any financial package is yet to be determined.

Hedayat Amin-Arsala, vice-chairman designate and finance minister of the Interim Administration for Afghanistan, discussed the reconstruction of his country with World Bank President James Wolfensohn on 14 December.

"Afghanistan faces both a tremendous challenge and a tremendous opportunity," said Wolfensohn. "All donors have a critical role to play in supporting the country's emergence as a member of the world community: a country with the space to grow, to find its stability and live at peace with itself and its neighbors," he added.

"The international community must be especially careful now to listen closely to the voices of Afghanistan's new leadership and civil society. In our zeal to help, we must encourage and support the extraordinary flame of renewal that Minister Amin-Arsala and his colleagues represent," a World Bank statement quoted Wolfensohn as saying.

Amin-Arsala told Wolfensohn that it was not like the country was starting from a scratch. "Our institutions have been substantially weakened, but they are there. We will need support to help us rebuild these institutions and to revive our economy. We Afghans must envision our future boldly. We must think creatively, embracing strategies and technologies for Afghanistan to leap ahead on a faster development track and play a positive and constructive role in the development of the region as a whole," Amin-Arsala said.

Annan also pledged that the UN would support the Afghans and give them whatever help was needed to implement the power-sharing plan.

"We will be there with them on 22 December to give them whatever assistance we can, and we are going to take them on their word and work with them in good faith to implement the agreement that they willingly signed in Bonn," Annan added.

The agreement reached in Bonn and signed earlier this month by some Afghan groups sets up an interim government for a period of six months. It envisages convening of a Loya Jirgah, or supreme national tribal assembly, to lead to a multi-ethnic and broad-based government in Afghanistan.