Multiple factors threaten food security in the south

The food security situation in southern Somalia looks increasingly precarious as a result of erratic rainfall, poor livestock conditions, continuing conflict and the cumulative effect of recurring emergencies, according to a report from the inter-agency Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU), received by IRIN on Tuesday. “The combination of ... early signals with the possible trends of livestock and trade suggests that the conditions exist for a food crisis to materialise over the coming months”, the report stated. While the population in the southern regions has shown limited signs of food insecurity so far - probably as a result of food and non-food aid to vulnerable populations since December - “food security crises are increasingly likely to occur” in the context of a shrinking capacity of people to cope, particularly among the poor sections of rainfed farmers, agro-pastoralists and pastoralists, the report said. While the effects of conflict on crop production and population shifts are unpredictable, the “latest security risks suggest the current vulnerability projection may soon be revised downwards”, the FSAU stated.