Vulnerability to food shortages

Several parts of Kenya have remained dry, making the upcoming March-July long rains crucial for human and livestock survival. Farm households have overstretched their traditional coping strategies following successive crop failures. “Farm households residing along the lakeshore will be under considerable food stress in the event of poor long rains since the previous harvest was 20 percent below normal,” the February Update of the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) warns. Based on a January survey conducted by FEWS, WFP and the Kenyan government, the Update forecasts domestic food supply for July 1998 - June 1999 to be about 3.1 million mt versus an estimated consumption of 2.9 million mt. “The situation is bad. About 30-60 percent of the populations in Eastern, North Eastern, Nyanza, Coast and parts of Central province need relief food. We are doing all we can in distribution but we need other agencies to chip in,” Kenya’s permanent secretary in charge of relief and rehabilitation, Joshua Matui, told IRIN today. According to a current FAO assessment, import needs are estimated at 147,000 mt, and 95,000 mt in food aid is required for 1998/1999.