Oxford Analytica predicts sanctions will end in February

An analysis by Oxford Analytica noted that an end to sanctions would have a “pronounced effect” on the country’s dislocated economy. Greater stability in Burundi could help mitigate tensions elsewhere in the Great Lakes region, the report added. It noted that Nyerere, “the last major opponent to lifting regional sanctions”, had now changed his stance, probably under donor pressure. The report said regional heads of state would almost certainly accept the recommendation to lift sanctions which is due to be made at the next round of Arusha talks in January.

The sanctions regime will probably end in February, it added. Oxford Analytica predicted that with the lifting of sanctions, Tanzania would take a tougher line on refugees. It also warned that rebel militias in Burundi, “ignored in Arusha and alarmed that sanctions might soon be lifted”, were stepping up attacks on displaced people’s camps to provoke “retaliatory massacres” by the army and thus sway international sympathy away from the government.