IRIN Focus on the peace process

The negotiating sides in the Burundi peace process continued their deliberations in the Tanzanian town of Arusha on Thursday, the day the facilitator, ex-South African President Nelson Mandela, wanted to see the peace accord signed, sealed and delivered. Conceding that 20 July was premature for the signing of such a complex agreement, the facilitator is nevertheless putting pressure on the sides to be ready to sign on 28 August. For the first time ever, the 19 negotiating parties are joined by the armed rebel faction, the Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie-Forces de defense pour la democratie (FDD) raising hopes of eventual face-to-face talks between the main protagonists in Burundi’s seven-year conflict - the armed rebel groups and the government. There is more optimism than ever before that a peace accord is finally in sight. However, the two years of peace talks have been characterised by obstacles and setbacks. And observers stress that even this time, the negotiators are not yet out of the woods. The other major rebel faction, the Parti pour la liberation du peuple hutu-Forces nationales de liberation (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) led by Cossan Kabura pulled out at the last minute, after earlier indicating it too would take part in the process for the first time. The group’s politico-military adviser Alain Mughbarabona told IRIN his movement was unhappy with the methodology of the process and the way the talks were developing. He accused Mandela of a lack of objectivity. He stressed however, that PALIPEHUTU-FNL was committed to the peace process and would take part “once the problems have been sorted out”. Apart from the absence of a major rebel group, the process is fiercely opposed by radical Tutsi parties who represent the views of many people back home, particularly the Tutsi residents of the capital, Bujumbura. The parties are afraid that the Tutsi minority will be “sold out” by the peace accord, and are strongly resisting it. A draft accord is now on the table, with the key issues consisting of who will lead the transition, the possibility of a ceasefire and army reform. The government’s major preoccupation is that a cessation of hostilities must be in place before any accord can be signed, whereas the rebel groups’ conditions are closure of the government’s regroupment camps and the release of political prisoners. While the government has begun closing the camps, the issue of who constitutes a political prisoner is a thorny one. Many regional observers fear that Mandela will try to “rush the process”, and that any peace accord signed in haste will not be implementable. Most of the negotiating sides agree. President Pierre Buyoya has called for “taking all the necessary time” to reach an implementable agreement, while for the armed rebellions this is the first time they have ever taken part in the peace process. Burundi analyst, Jan van Eck of the South-Africa based Centre for Conflict, believes the new date for the accord - 28 August - is still not realistic. “The mediator is trying to inject urgency into the peace process but the harsh realities of Burundi cannot be ignored,” he told IRIN. The rebel groups need more time to study the draft, and their leaders then have to discuss it with their fighters in the field. “It is more important that Burundians are given enough time to sign an agreement they genuinely believe in,” he remarked. The main points of the draft accord provide for a president and two vice-presidents, to be appointed in Arusha, and drawn from different ethnic groups and political parties. The National Assembly will have 100 deputies and there will also be a Senate made up of two delegates from each of the country’s provinces. On security, the draft states that no single ethnic group will constitute more than 50 percent of the defence forces “to prevent them from becoming mono-ethnic or instruments of ethnic dominance”. The transition, according to the draft, will come into effect three to six months after the signing of the accord and will end after a maximum 30 months with the election of a new president. Mandela, unhappy that the accord was not finalised in time for signing on 20 July, is pushing to ensure that the 28 August date is adhered to. But diplomatic sources stress that regional leaders- who met Mandela on Wednesday - particularly Tanzania and Uganda, do not want two stalled peace processes in the region: the already-floundering Lusaka peace accord for Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Arusha for Burundi. They have insisted that enough time should be taken to prevent the Arusha accord unravelling at the earliest opportunity.