IMF scales back economic forecast

The International Monetary Fund has scaled back its growth projections for Africa this year citing depressed non-oil commodity prices, drought and political turbulence. In its twice yearly World Economic Outlook report, the IMF predicted that output from African economies would increase 3.4 percent this year, down from its estimate last April of 4.4 percent.

In South Africa, it said an economic recovery, “while still fragile, is gaining momentum,” with output on track for grow of 3-4 percent in 2000 and 2001. The report commended the Nigerian government for its efforts to stamp out corruption, restore macroeconomic stability and improve relations with creditors. But it called on authorities to allocate more funds to education while also saving a large portion of increased revenues.

The IMF was upbeat about prospects for Cameroon, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda, which have “begun to reap some of the benefits of macroeconomic and structural reforms.” The Fund was far less optimistic about prospects in Cote d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco and Zimbabwe. It cited in particular weak export prices for Cote d’Ivoire and Kenya, drought and war in Eritrea and Ethiopia, drought in Morocco, war in the DRC and political turbulence in Zimbabwe.