Fear of more insecurity with new political crisis

Guinea-Bissau’s parliament has passed a no-confidence motion against the country’s prime minister, triggering fears that more political instability could provoke violence as it has in the past.

Last week, many of President João Bernardo ‘Nino’ Vieira’s former supporters in parliament defected, creating a new coalition, which on Monday voted for the dismissal of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes, the president’s ally.

Observers say President Vieira has 72 hours either to concede to parliament’s demands and appoint a new prime minister or to dissolve parliament, which retains the power to approve or reject Vieira’s choice.

If Vieira dissolves parliament he would have to organise new parliamentary elections within 90 days, which donors have already said they would not support.

Many people in Bissau say they fear a dangerous new political crisis will end with conflict and the army taking over the impoverished, cashew-producing country as it did in 1999 and again in 2003.

“I don’t want to lose my soldier husband just like I lost my son during the 1998 civil war,” said Deulinda Mingo, a 36-year-old teacher in Bissau.

But she also said that soldiers like her husband have not been paid their salaries for months and that conditions for them are worse than they were in 1998 when most of the army rose up against President Vieira during his previous administration. He went into exile then returned and won elections in 2005.

Officially the army has not yet made any statement on the latest political developments but senior officials told IRIN that members of the army would consider stepping in.

“If the politicians are not able to solve their own problems we’ll not let them put the country into a deeper crisis,” said a high-ranking officer, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The military is deeply divided between senior officers who have received some of their salaries and low-ranking troops who have not. Most soldiers come from former president Kumba Yala’s Balanta ethnic group, while President Vieira has cultivated loyalty amongst some of the best-trained troops.

Yala, who is in self-imposed exile in Morocco, returned temporarily in November to tell supporters in Bissau that he expects to return to power again “whether through elections or by force”. The army ousted him in 2003 in the midst of ongoing political and economic turmoil.

Speaking on Portuguese television on Monday, Yala warned President Vieira to act quickly and carefully so that the latest political crisis does not escalate.

As of Tuesday President Vieira had not made any public comment.

Ae/dh/cs