“It is critical for democratic development that there should be choices. You cannot have democratic development if the people see no choice,” said Robin Madrid, the Yemen country representative of the US-based National Democratic Institute (NDI). The organisation has been assisting Yemen’s development of democratic elections and advising the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum.
“I am hopeful that there will be a real statement of different positions on issues from the two sides and a real national debate around issues,” Madrid said.
The candidates
Presidential elections will be held on 20 September with five candidates vying for the top job. It is the first time Saleh, candidate of the ruling General Peoples’ Congress (GPC) party, has faced serious opposition.
Bin Shamlan is positioned as the leading opposition candidate, nominated by al-Leka al-Mushtarak, a coalition composed of the major opposition parties: the Islamic Islah party, the Socialist party, the Nasserist Unionist party, the Al-Haq party, and the Popular Forces Union party.
The opposition front runner has a reputation of integrity in public office. He was appointed after the independence of the south in 1967 as a minister for construction, then a manager of Aden oil refinery and after the civil war in 1994 as minister of oil.
He resigned from each of these posts when he felt he did not have sufficient authority to bring about change. He even resigned from parliament when the parliamentarians’ term was extended from four years to six, in 2001.
The other three candidates are Yasin Abdu Saeed, candidate of the National Opposition Council, which is generally aligned with the GPC; Ahmed al-Majidi, a leading member of the socialist party backed by the GPC; and independent candidate Fathi al-Azab, who is in charge of the youth department at the Islah party, the biggest party in the opposition coalition.
Efforts to keep it fair
The opposition coalition and the ruling party signed an agreement in mid-June to take measures that would ensure a free, fair and safe campaign and election. This agreement specifies the neutrality of the military, the state-run media and the use of public funds.
It also required that two members from the opposition coalition be added to the seven-member elections commission in early July. But, the opposition complains that the two new members have found it difficult to make any inroads with the commission, which sets the rules and procedures for the elections.
Under the agreement, a legal team with representatives from the two sides scrutinised the voter registration lists to remove the names of phantom, underage and duplicate voters.
Dr Abdul Mumen Shuja’a Eddin, head of the elections commission legal department, announced on 5 August that the judiciary ordered the removal of 216,115 names from the voter registry, out of a total of 9 million voters.
However, the opposition alleges that the legal team working on the registry was hampered in its work and that the number of voter names that should be excised is more than half a million.
Madrid also voiced concerns that the elections might turn violent, even though the government has banned weapons at the polling centres. She said that the potential for violence could be partly caused by the ongoing media barrage between the GPC and the opposition, a fight that does not focus on the issues but on the people.
“I think the two sides need to tone down their rhetoric; they spend much time attacking each other, focusing on persons rather than policies,” she said.
However, there is cause for optimism, said Ali Saif Hasan, political analyst and head of the local NGO Political Development Forum. “I am sure there will be a heated contest and transparency in this election because both the ruling party and the opposition are serious and are pushing to that end,” he said.
Hasan also said that a healthy opposition will end the speculation about the possibility of Saleh transferring power to his elder son Ahmed.
Moving in the right direction
Since the 1990s, foreign governments and donor countries have considered Yemen to be one of the few Arab states taking concrete steps towards democratisation, an appraisal based on three successful parliamentary elections in 1993, 1997 and 2003.
In the last contest, the GPC won in a landslide victory, clinching 226 out of a total of 301 elected seats.
At those elections, NDI reported nonetheless a number of violations such as political intimidation, underage voting, inappropriate behaviour by security forces, vote-buying, and obstruction by GPC counting commissioners. It held the GPC accountable for many of these flaws.
However, NDI described the 2003 election as “another significant step forward on Yemen’s path toward democracy”, because there were heated contests between parties, mainly in the major cities of the governorates where international monitors were present. In the capital, Sana’a, the Islah party was able to defeat the GPC in some of the most important districts.
Saleh won the 1999 presidential election with 96.2 percent of the vote. His only challenger was Najib Qahtan al-Shaabi, a member of Saleh's own party and son of the first president of the former South Yemen.
The upcoming presidential election will be combined with voting on local council members, first elected in 2001.
Saleh announced in July 2005 he would not seek re-election, but he reversed his decision at a massive rally in Sana’a organised in late June 2006 by the GPC. Saleh said he would “bow to the popular pressure and appeals of the Yemeni people” by accepting the nomination.
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