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HIV/AIDS is expected to have a negative impact on South Africa's economic growth in coming years, but the effects will not be nearly as severe as previous predictions, according to a new study by the local Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
An earlier World Bank report suggested that the nation's economy would be pushed to "the brink of collapse", but the BER was confident that growth would only slow to an annual average rate of 4 percent between 2000 and 2010, from a projected 4.4 percent in the absence of AIDS.
However, BER researchers warned that the economy would be a lot worse off without proper prevention, treatment and care programmes in place.
"Without treatment, AIDS would reduce the expected size of the economy in 2020 by about 8.8 percent. But a large-scale treatment programme would cut the impact by 17 percent between 2000 and 2020," the BER said.
In November 2003, the South African Cabinet approved the 'The Operational Plan for HIV/AIDS Care, Management and Treatment', considered one of the largest and most ambitious treatment programmes in the world.
Access the full BER report: www.ber.sun.ac.za
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