Country on the brink, says UN envoy

After two years of surplus agricultural production, Zambia has experienced a dramatic downturn and will need significant international assistance, said James Morris, the UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy for Humanitarian Needs in Southern Africa. Prolonged dry spells during the last growing season had resulted in crop yields being reduced by up to 90 percent in some districts, the World Food Programme (WFP) said in a statement at the end of Morris' two-day visit to the country. "Zambia has made progress in strengthening its agricultural output over the last two years. It is unfortunate that these severe dry spells have had a massive impact on this year's production. Sadly, it is a pattern that we are seeing in many parts of Southern Africa, and widespread relief assistance will be required," Morris was quoted as saying. In the last two years Zambia produced significant maize surpluses, enabling WFP to purchase over 150,000 mt (worth US $30 million) of food for its aid programmes in other parts of southern Africa. Jo Woods, a WFP spokeswoman in the capital, Lusaka, told IRIN that the downturn in agricultural production was "really due to the lack of rain". "Most people used fertiliser this year; farm subsidies were provided by the government; people were using conservation farming methods. They had a good go at doing things right: they put the seed in at the right time - some people replanted two or three times - but it was just the lack of rain that was the main problem," she said. Apart from the weather, the poor harvest was "once again, compounded by other factors, like HIV/AIDS". The government of Zambia, the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation, WFP, and NGOs are analysing assessment results to determine the extent of the agricultural shortfall and the number of people who will require assistance over the next year. Results are expected early next month, but preliminary indications are that some 1.5 million people will require food aid. Nearly one in every five adults, or 16.5 percent of the population, is HIV positive and an estimated 300 people die every day due to AIDS-related illnesses. The health, education and agricultural sectors have all been particularly hard hit by HIV/AIDS, leading the government to state recently that it was no longer able to replace the teachers lost to the virus each month. The UN Children's Fund estimates that more than 1 million children have been orphaned. "It's an absolute tragedy that in today's day and age we are not able to stop the suffering of children, when it's within our ability to respond," said Morris. "Government policies must be adopted to protect these children, and the international community must help preserve and protect these innocent lives while we still have the opportunity." WFP said the complexity of the humanitarian situation in Zambia, which is compounded by the country's large debt burden, required that the government, the UN and NGOs, redouble efforts to address the challenges at hand. Morris met with President Levy Mwanawasa, government officials, the UN country team, NGOs and members of the donor community during his visit.