UN hopeful over upcoming elections

The United Nations is hopeful next year's parliamentary elections in Tajikistan will be an improvement over the last national poll, in 2000, when the influence of former field commanders from the bloody civil war was more apparent. "I hope that the next elections will be more democratic, more transparent, more credible and fairer," Vladimir Sotirov, head of the UN Tajikistan Office of Peace-building (UNTOP), told IRIN in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, noting that they had been encouraging Tajik society, government leaders, parliament and the country's various political parties in that direction. Conceding that there were difficulties in the process, Sotirov maintained: "I'm an optimist. This is why we are working closely with the government, the OSCE [Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe], IFES [International Foundation for Election Systems] and other international organisations, as well as the donor community, to assist Tajikistan to live up to international standards in upcoming elections." "There are controversies in the development [of democratisation], but as a whole our assessment is positive," he explained, adding that the purpose of the political parties was to be more representative to the parliament, and to have more significant input in the social and political life in this country. "I could observe positive trends in this regard," the senior UN official maintained. The UN Secretary-General's representative noted that a new stage of development was being reached and certain controversies were now being overcome. "For me, the most important thing is whether society is moving towards democratisation, whether there is a will, and whether concrete steps are being undertaken to implement this political will," the former Bulgarian diplomat remarked, adding: "Our role here is to assist this will and positive trends." Scheduled for next February, the parliamentary elections are viewed as an important benchmark for the democratisation of Tajik society and for the fulfillment of UNTOP's goals, which were the promotion of a political environment of peace and reconciliation in the former Soviet republic, still reeling from a five-year civil war which devastated the country's economy and infrastructure and killed thousands in the process, before officially ending in 1997. Asked for her assessment of the lead up to the elections when certain election reforms, now being debated, could have a dramatic impact on the entire election process, Stephanie Wheeler, a political party development project consultant of the Washington-based IFES told IRIN that this year had been an opportunity for the current administration and the political party factions represented in the parliament to show their transparency in the legislative process and their support for open and public debate. "This democratic spirit has been demonstrated in media coverage of early roundtable discussions on the reforms, and I hope that we continue to see this trend as laws are passed that will ultimately affect all citizens of Tajikistan," she said in Dushanbe. Others, however, remain more cautious. The International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a statement on Wednesday that, with the approach of the elections, President Emomali Rakhmonov seemed content on consolidating his power at the expense of not only the warlords, but also of opposition groups, including the legal Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT). And while certain areas of social and economic progress in the impoverished former Soviet republic were commendable, the political system remained "fragile", with warlordism and regionalism governing much of its dynamic. According to the Brussels-based group, through the peace process, warlords on both sides retained effective control in many regions, including the Kulob-based Popular Front of Tajikistan (PFT) and the Islamist-democratic opposition (the United Tajik Opposition-UTO), mostly based in the eastern Rasht Valley and the Pamirs. "The president has gradually limited their powers and enforced the state's writ, but in some areas success has been only partial. These are positive steps towards a viable state, but instead of replacing warlords with a broader-based government, Rakhmonov's ruling circle is increasingly dominated by close allies, many from his home region," the statement read. But with tensions likely to increase as parliamentary elections approach, followed by presidential elections in 2006, the scenario could prove problematic. Little was being done to avoid the malpractice of previous elections, the ICG charged, adding pressure on the secular opposition, a weak group of small parties, had increased, and few expect parliamentary elections to be free and fair, with the ruling party anticipated to win almost all the seats. Last month, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced he would seek to extend the work of UNTOP for another year, until 1 June 2005. In a letter to the President of the Security Council released on 30 April, the Secretary-General said the viability of Tajikistan's peace process would be tested by February's parliamentary elections, noting that UNTOP had facilitated a needs assessment mission led by the UN's Electoral Assistance Division. "We are expecting the report of the elections assessment mission and their recommendations, at which point we will discuss them with the government to find concrete ways and means to assist the democratisation of the society and better preparations for the next general elections," Sotirov said, noting this would be done in close cooperation with the donor community and other players in Tajikistan. "Democratisation is a process. It is not a fixed development. It goes in stages," the UN official explained.