More landslides predicted following quakes

Emergency officials in Kyrgyzstan expect more landslides in the mountainous Central Asian country following minor tremors in April and anticipated rains in May, IRIN learnt on Tuesday. "There isn't a single day without landslides. Landslides occurred on Monday and Sunday in various parts of the country, particularly in the south. They are following one another," Anarkul Aitaliev, head of the Kyrgyz emergency ministry's department for monitoring and forecasting, told IRIN from the capital, Bishkek. "The situation hasn't stabilised yet and we expect more landslides. On the contrary it [the situation] is exacerbating," he added. According to the emergency agency, a landslide occurred in the southern Kyrgyz town of Mailuu-Suu, on Monday. Some 2 million cubic metres of unstable uranium waste remain dumped above ground in 13 locations around Mailuu-Suu. There are more than 200 places around the town prone to landslides, three of which, the Tectonic, Koi-Tash and Izolit sites, are the most unstable. "The land mass that we have been monitoring for 20 years started to move. The landslide prone area called Tectonic moved 1.5 metres," Aitaliev said, adding that another landslide-prone area close to the uranium waste dumps recently subsided by 20 cm. On Sunday, another landslide ripped through Sary-Bulak village in the Suzak district of the southern Jalal-Abad province and buried one house. No casualties have been reported. Two separate landslides struck Avletim village in Jalal-Abad's Aksy district on Saturday and late on Friday, destroying the buildings belonging to four families and blocking the flow of the Avletim river and Avletim-Chongtash road. Work to clear up the road had been stopped due to an imminent threat of further landslides in the area, the ministry said in a statement earlier. Earlier this year, emergency officials were warning about the increasing risk of landslides in Kyrgyzstan, particularly the country's south. In April alone, more than 20 landslides occurred in the country, Aitaliev maintained. The emergency official cited minor quakes as one of the main reasons for the increasing number of landslides in the country. "The most important thing is that quakes cause landslides," he noted, adding that in April alone, five tremors occurred. A minor quake measuring four on the Richter scale struck the southern Gulcho village of the Alai district, on 6 April. Tremors reoccurred in the same area on 8 and 10 April. Last week a landslide killed 33 people in the Alai district's Budalyk village, some 20 km from Gulcho. "Even in some areas where there were no clear signs of [possible] landslides, the land slid down," the emergency official explained. Another warning is coming from meteorologists, who forecast the second half of May to have much higher rainfall than usual. "Rains would definitely cause new landslides. All of the most dangerous huge landslide-prone areas became more active last year. We expect that those potential landslides will occur," Aitaliev warned. Meanwhile, many people continue to live in high risk areas. According to the emergency officials, around 2,000 families need to be moved from landslide-prone places. Some 650 families have already been resettled from dangerous areas over the past four months of this year, including 220 households in April alone. The recent figures show an increase compared with some 1,240 families that were moved in 2003. However, mountain village residents in the south seem to be reluctant to abandon their houses. Asan, a 50-year-old resident of the southern city of Osh, told IRIN that most of his relatives and neighbours in the Karaguz village of the southern Kara-Kulja district, one of the epicentres prone to landslides, didn't want to move and leave their lands because cattle breeding was their only source of income. "Should they move to other, low-lying areas they wouldn't be able to keep their cattle and would have nothing," he said, expressing the concern of his relatives. "This is the main problem now. On the one hand we save the lives of people, but on the other hand it aggravates their economic and social conditions. But we have no other choice, the most important thing is to save the lives of people," Aitaliev stressed. A long term programme for resettling people taking into account geological and engineering issues, and minimising the impact of resettlement, was needed, officials said. However, the main challenge in both immediate and longer term resettlement is a lack of necessary funds. Aitaliev urged international organisations, NGOs and donor community to assist the impoverished former Soviet republic in the daunting task of resettling thousands of people. "Literally any help would be useful. People don't even want to leave a broken shovel not to mention their houses, their cattle and gardens. Therefore, tents, clothing, food and other non-food items would be of help," he said.