HIV/AIDS threatens democracy

The impact of HIV/AIDS could reverse democratic gains in Southern Africa, according to a report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

A recently published research paper by the Pretoria-based institute found that lost incomes, increasing health and labour costs and decreasing productivity threatened the economic growth "necessary to sustain democratic practice in poor countries".

"For most countries in Southern Africa, public spending on HIV/AIDS-related matters threatens to consume their entire health budget, or increase the overall national budget," the report noted.

In Zambia, government AIDS spending rose from US $1.7 million in 1990 to US $12.9 by 1995, and is expected to rise to US $21 million by 2005. Zimbabwe currently spent almost half its health budget on treating AIDS patients and this would rise to almost two-thirds by 2005, it added.

"HIV/AIDS may consequently increase the reliance of Southern African states on international donor funding. Zimbabwe's foreign assistance needs have reportedly already increased by 27 percent because of AIDS," the report found.

Increasing death and illness among legislators and in government ministries also threatened the "institutionalisation" that countries needed to strengthen democracy.

But a "sharp" decrease in antiretroviral drug prices and an increased political will by leaders across the region could "significantly mitigate" the economic, social and political consequences of the epidemic.

"Bold and imaginative prevention campaigns" also had the potential to reverse the region's cycle of "gloom and despair," the report concluded.