Mugabe seeks support

The South African presidency has not yet received an official request for a meeting with the Zimbabwean government in spite of reports that President Robert Mugabe wants an urgent summit over South Africa's waning support for his policies. A spokesperson for Mbeki's office told IRIN on Thursday 6 December that the presidency would comment "if and when we receive such a request". Zimbabwe's Financial Gazette reported on Thursday that a shaken Mugabe was seeking an urgent meeting with Mbeki to try to mend the rift that has developed between them. The report quoted official sources as saying that Mbeki’s scathing attack on Mugabe's policies over the weekend had prompted plans to request the meeting. Mbeki, in his first public rebuke of Mugabe, was quoted as saying at the weekend that the Zimbabwean leader's policies had destroyed southern Africa's second largest economy and that the country’s presidential election next year was unlikely to be free and fair. Mbeki warned that Mugabe should no longer expect any more protection from South Africa, the report said. "President Mugabe has been advised to have a meeting with President Mbeki so that the two can have a frank talk about the events in Zimbabwe and try to bridge a rift which is developing between the two countries," a cabinet minister was quoted as saying. Other news reports said the meeting would be separate from a Southern African Development Community (SADC) ministerial meeting due to start in Harare on Monday to review Zimbabwe's land crisis. As the Zimbabwean media focused on the allegedly tense relationship between the two governments this week, local analysts were quoted as saying that the unspoken but most significant point under-scored by Mbeki's new attitude was that Pretoria could easily flex its economic muscle if Harare continued defying international calls to uphold the rule of law and to hold a free and fair election next year. South Africa's chief director of trade negotiations, Tshediso Matona, told IRIN that sanctions against Zimbabwe were out of the question. "I do not foresee a decision on trade sanctions in the short term as such, particularly because sanctions are an extreme measure and they would need to be part of a multilateral decision," he said. However, it has become abundantly clear that South Africa does have the economic leverage it needs if it indeed chooses to use it. According to official statistics for the year 2000, said South African Chamber of Business chief economist Richard Downing, Zimbabwe has a negative trade balance with South Africa. He said that while 47 percent of Zimbabwe's total imports were from South Africa, only 12 percent of its exports were sold to South Africa. In 2000 South Africa exported US $966 million worth of goods to Zimbabwe (constituting only about 1.7 percent of SA's total international trade), while Zimbabwe's exports to South Africa totalled US $252 million. "They are very much dependent on South Africa for their resources," he said. Statistics indicate that machinery, mechanical appliances and parts (totalling about US $53 million), mineral fuels, oils and products of their distillation (totalling about US $52 million), plastic products (totalling about US $32 million), iron and steel (totalling about US $30 million and pharmaceutical products (totalling about US $29 million) were among South Africa's main exports to Zimbabwe in 2000. In addition, Zimbabwe secures services, like electricity, from South Africa's energy supplier Eskom, and while it has renegotiated its debt with the supplier, one analyst told IRIN that accurate statistics on Zimbabwe's debt to South Africa, and South Africa's economic exposure in Zimbabwe were difficult to obtain. There was fear, he said, that such statistics would reveal South Africa's exact risk in Zimbabwe and affect the ailing rand further. Mbeki's broadside at the weekend came as international pressure on Mugabe mounted and was welcomed by the business community in South Africa, which has invested heavily in Zimbabwe. The South African Chamber of Business (SACOB) said in a statement on Thursday: "Kevin Wakeford (SACOB chief executive) commended Mbeki's call for urgent action by other SADC countries and the Commonwealth to ensure free and fair elections in Zimbabwe next year and endorsed the president's comments that ZANU-PF was to blame for this turmoil by following misguided economic policies over the past 20 years. He further supported the president's call for freedom of the press in Zimbabwe." According to the Financial Gazette, the US Congress on Wednesday passed the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Bill which, among other penalties, places travel bans on Mugabe, his cabinet and senior ZANU-PF officials. The US measures, which awaited President George W Bush’s signature, would also freeze the assets of the Zimbabwean leader and those of his leading lieutenants, the report said. The EU was also considering slapping "smart sanctions on Zimbabwe" while a Commonwealth ministerial team would meet next month to review the worsening situation in Zimbabwe, it added. In addition, government sources were quoted as saying that Mugabe hurriedly boarded an Air Zimbabwe plane bound for London on Sunday and diverted it to Madrid where he is seeking an audience with Spanish authorities to mediate for him against the pending EU sanctions. The meeting with Mbeki was being planned after the discussions with the Spanish, the sources said.