Cross-border migration "will spread crisis"

Warning that "we are now at the early stages of what could be a massive human tragedy", a summary of findings and recommendations to the UN Secretary-General on drought in the Horn of Africa says that many countries in the region could be affected by the disaster. Cross-border migration could increase dramatically, says the report produced by UN special envoy to the region Catherine Bertini.

By far the largest number of people presently affected by drought are in Ethiopia, but cross-border migration by affected communities intensify and spread the crisis. "The pastoral societies of the semi-arid areas most severely affected...inhabit ecosystems that cut across national borders,"
the report says. This refers in particular to ethnic Somalis in the Ogaden; the Ethiopian Borena near the Kenya-Ethiopia border; and southern Somali communities who have traditionally used the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders. Pastoralist Afar communities use the Djibouti, Ethiopian and Eritrean borders. These areas are also "often the most insecure", says the report. In the Ogaden, ethnic Somalis have traditionally crossed into neighbouring Somalia and Kenya in search of food, but insecurity from
banditry and military operations against Islamic fundamentalists and opposition groups since 1992 has contributed to restricting community movements. Attacks on vehicles and kidnappings have also restricted the operations of aid personnel, and the Ethiopian government presently recommends that international staff do not stay overnight in the Ogaden region.

The report also warns that cattle-dependent pastoralist communities affected by a three year drought has resulted in "dramatic increases in livestock mortality...from 20-90 percent". Livestock are congregating around exhausted grazing reserves and water points, and the price of available grain is high compared to collapsed prices for livestock.

The report says governments in the region "bear the main responsibility for disaster prevention ..and providing relief assistance to their citizens" but that the magnitude of the current drought "far exceeds the financial and logistics capacities available for the governments in the region". The Ethiopian, Kenyan and Eritrean governments have pledged funds
from their own budgets to purchase cereals locally for the
drought-affected, and have used strategic food reserves - which are now low.

The report warns that donor coordination is "a key to successful
responses" and recommends the creation of a regional security and operational information network to monitor the movement of people, staff, logistics inputs and relief supplies across borders. It added that an estimated 16 million lives at risk will be reassessed as the rains failed to arrive in March. "If there are no rains by May the number of people in need of relief will increase significantly," it said.