Concern over military's role

As tension grows in Zimbabwe in the run-up to legislative elections, concern is being expressed over the potential
political role of an army leadership that is closely linked to the ruling party.

As a result of the liberation war, the armed forces and government leaders share close and personalised relations, analysts told IRIN. Business links have allowed senior army officers to profit from Zimbabwe's intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and over the past year there has been a noticeable "militarisation" of some civilian posts in government.

These include the head of the police, the Central Intelligence Organisation, prisons, Zimbabwe Defence Industries, and the state-owned national oil company.

"They have not only been brought (into government) by the politicians, the fact is they are already there as key decision-makers. The military leadership are card carrying members of (the ruling) party and sit on the central committee," Executive Director of Zimbabwe's Centre for Defence Studies, Lieutenant-Colonel Martin Rupiya, told IRIN.

The concern in Zimbabwe is that the military could intervene to forestall a situation that threatens the regime, analysts said.

"My view is if there is a change of government, the military chiefs would not sit well with a new political leadership," Rupiya said. The army could intervene "not only to protect the president, but to protect themselves as well."

He pointed out that liberation war veterans, leading a campaign of farm invasions, have threatened to go back to the bush and fight should the government lose the May legislative elections. "The party hierarchy seems to have almost welcomed those comments," Rupiya said.

According to Brian Raftopoulos of the Centre for Development Studies in Harare, an "army backlash" could be expected in a situation of political turmoil. "If the opposition emerges strong (from the elections) they would stay out of it. But if there is a situation of a political vacuum they could
step in," he told IRIN. "This transition is all important in keeping the army out of politics, it must be done in an orderly way."