Ceasefire difficult to implement, analysts say

Analysts say the ceasefire accord contains a number of provisions that will be very difficult to implement. In a paper sent to IRIN, Laurie Nathan of the Centre for Conflict Resolution in South Africa, said the timetable for implementation was unrealistic. "The DRC national dialogue
is expected to commence within 45 days of signing the agreement and to be concluded within less than two months. In contrast, formal negotiations (following lengthy processes of informal dialogue) were conducted over a period of four years in South Africa and 27 months in Mozambique."

Concerning the deployment of UN peacekeepers, he notes the Security Council is "notoriously slow" in establishing peacekeeping forces. "The most serious problem" is that guerrilla groups such as the Interahamwe and ex-FAR will resist disarmament and repatriation. "In all probability, the
peace enforcement objectives of the ceasefire agreement are unattainable by military means," Nathan said.