Analysts note uphill struggle ahead

Regional analysts told IRIN there was a long way to go to assure implementation of the ceasefire and secure peace. Professor Filip Reyntjens of Antwerp University described the accord as "a good deal, in the sense it's the only possible deal". He said there remained "a few blank spots", particularly the non-involvement at Lusaka of Mayi-Mayi fighters from eastern DRC and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) from Uganda, and the logistics of disarming the Interahamwe and ex-FAR. Another close observer of the talks in Lusaka added that the rapid deployment of a peacekeeping force to monitor the ceasefire and disarm militia groups would be crucial to the peace deal. "You just cannot wait three months or more for a fully-fledged UN force to go in," he said. Reyntjens concurred, saying the absence of a defined frontline in the DRC conflict would also mean "deploying troops in dozens of different pockets", some in government-controlled and some in rebel-held areas, which would lead to considerable logistical problems, enormous expense and serious danger for soldiers on the ground. "There is no way the conflict will be solved, no matter how the parties stick to the terms - and that's by no means certain - if they're not given the means to tackle a fundamental problem, which is the complete breakdown of the Congo state," Reyntjens added.