Organising the opposition

Angola's Council of the Republic - the president’s consultative body - has announced that parliamentary elections will be held in 2008: the question facing the former rebel group, the National Union for the Total Independence for Angola (UNITA), is whether it can present a decent challenge to the ruling party's domination.

One of the most common criticisms is that it lacks any clear plan of how it would lead the country if it gained power - a weakness that could undermine Angola's fragile democracy.

UNITA lost its founder and longstanding leader, Jonas Malheiro Savimbi, over five years ago. During that time it has become a political party and the official opposition to the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), which has held power since independence from Portugal in 1975. UNITA now has to defeat the ruling party at the ballot box, instead of on the battlefield.

"UNITA is totally disorganised," one nongovernmental organisation (NGO) worker told IRIN. "If they want to stand a chance they need to organise, develop a media strategy and develop a programme for government."

Exploiting Angola's social challenges

One of Africa's longest civil conflicts ended with Savimbi's death, and the MPLA lost its chief excuse for poor social performance during 33 years of rule. Despite five years of peace, an oil boom and impressive economic growth, averaging 13 percent for the last three years, not much has changed. Angola has actually dropped a place on the United Nations Human Development Index, to 161 out of 177 countries, and one in every four children still dies before turning five.

"If we look at the social indicators we can see that Angola has not shown a very good improvement rate," said Dr Manuel Alves da Rocha, an economist at the Catholic University of Angola. "I know that on the social side things are very slow, but I'm afraid that for the next 10 years we will not register very good improvements. I'm very concerned about that."

Gloomy social and economic data could be to UNITA's electoral advantage. "This is a golden opportunity for UNITA to be different, to show that they aren't the same [as the MPLA]," says Isabel Emerson, Resident Director of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, a US-based NGO. "There are some fundamentally big issues here: 67 percent of people living below the poverty line; how to attract foreign investment, how to boost agriculture, and these sort of problems need a big vision." 

One of the reasons UNITA might be failing to make strides is because it is in the curious position of being the country's largest opposition party, while simultaneously forming part of the Government of Unity and National Reconciliation (GURN). This somewhat theoretical unity with the MPLA restricts UNITA's potential to promote itself, which concerns some MPLA parliamentarians.

"The GURN leaves them weak, as an opposition, and one thing this country needs is a strong opposition," said an MPLA deputy, speaking on condition of anonymity. "What worries me most is that UNITA are so weak, they won't win enough seats at the election to reduce the MPLA majority. And if that happens, this country will be in trouble."

Guessing the mind of the people

Nevertheless, one man who is sure that UNITA is gaining support is Reís Luís Mbwango, director of the National Counselling Centre, an Angolan NGO specialising in educating communities about legal reform, civil society and citizenship in 15 of the country's 18 provinces. This may not always be clear to the outside world but, he believes, it is because many UNITA voters are afraid of expressing their support publicly.

"It is even possible that UNITA has more sympathisers than the MPLA, although the MPLA probably has more visible militants," said Mbwango, who said he met many Angolans who were desperate for change.

"They want another party in power," he asserted. "And don't forget that UNITA leaders still speak the [indigenous] languages of the common people. This gives them a huge advantage in terms of being able to communicate with the public."

That may be so, but if UNITA wants to defeat the MPLA it will have to do more than appeal to its traditional support base; it needs to tap into other areas of support, which could be much harder. A survey six months ago by the International Republican Institute, an American NGO based in the capital, Luanda, showed that 91 percent of the respondents thought the government was doing a good job. If this is a true reflection of sentiment, people might not want a change of government.

"People usually say to surveys what they think the surveyor wants to hear," said Sousa Jamba, a UNITA member and commentator for the independent newspaper, Semanário Angolense. "I have close relatives who are MPLA in public but assure me that they will vote for UNITA."

Jamba insisted the party is managing to win support beyond its traditional geographic strongholds: "UNITA is making real inroads into the north among the Bakongo, who are disappointed by the disarray within the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (FNLA) [another participant in the civil war, now a contender in the 2008 elections] and other smaller parties."

He thinks that not only UNITA's conventional supporters are changing, but the MPLA's too, and that an embittered lower-middle class may give their vote to one of the smaller parties, which could open up the National Assembly and reduce the MPLA's huge majority.

"UNITA might not necessarily gain," said Jamba, "but the MPLA might lose some of its supporters."

Keeping UNITA united

One observer, who asked not to be named, said UNITA was becoming "too bourgeois", with a growing gap between the urbanised elite in Luanda and the party's traditional support-base in the central and eastern parts of the country.

Key UNITA figures, such as the charismatic Abel Apalanga Chivukuvuku, have been criticised for enjoying a luxurious lifestyle more commonly associated with the MPLA elite, an allegation his supporters deny. UNITA president Isaías Henriques Ngola Samakuva has also been criticised for allegedly failing to distribute party funds fairly, and has been accused of paying some party officials higher salaries than others and buying himself a lavish house.

But a UNITA member close to Samakuva said, "The US$650,000 house has led to much discussion in UNITA. It is not Samakuva's house; it is the house for the UNITA leader, whoever that might be."

Internal dissension has perhaps been UNITA's greatest weakness. Since Savimbi was killed in February 2002, the party has had to work hard to stay united. There has been much backbiting between factions divided along regional and even racial lines. Some argue that the biggest struggle is between personalities - such as Samakuva, Chivukuvuku and the former interim party president, Paolo Lukamba Gato - while others insist the biggest split is between those who come from the central province of Huambo, and those from the adjoining Bié Province.

UNITA leader Samakuva describes the factional bickering simply as healthy internal criticism. He says a good and strong opposition party must defend peace and democracy, and bats away criticisms of UNITA's internal divisions by ascribing them to democratic freedom of expression.

"I am proud," he says. "I am leading UNITA with a clear internal opposition. I know that. It's the same as [British political parties] Labour and the Conservatives, which have their divisions. So I'm proud we've been able to do this and that I still hold the majority."

But there has been a significant amount of squabbling behind the scenes: last year, the party expelled five members it accused of trying to promote the MPLA, so instead of having 70 deputies in parliament UNITA now only has 65.

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