Peace process deadlocked with time running out before planned elections

"It's impossible to organise elections as scheduled," one African diplomat in war-divided Cote d'Ivoire sighed. "The reason no-one is saying it officially is because they don't want to annoy the mediators." Ivorians are supposed to go to the polls on 30 October to restore peace to a country that was once an oasis of prosperity and stability in West Africa but for the last three years has been spilt into a government-run south and a rebel-held north. The African Union picked South African president Thabo Mbeki to oversee Cote d'Ivoire's transition to peace but he is repeatedly running up against obstacles, and dealing with each one is running down precious days on the elections timetable. The latest dispute is over a series of laws passed by Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo in mid-July on nationality, identity and the electoral process. The South African mediation last week gave the reforms the green light, saying they conformed to the peace process, but the rebels have protested and are refusing to move into cantonment sites ahead of an eventual disarmament. "The crux of the blockage is the electoral commission," one Western diplomat told IRIN. Despite the fact there are just over two months to go until the planned polls, the Independent Electoral Commission is still not up and running because there is disagreement about what its responsibilities are. Gbagbo wants the National Statistics Institute to handle the drawing up of the electoral register and the distribution of voting cards as it always has done. But the opposition and the rebels are wary because the statistics body is controlled by the government and they fear it could distribute cards only to those who will vote for Gbagbo. Sources close to the mediation say the South Africans agreed with all parties that the statistics institute would hold on to its tasks but would carry them out only under the direct control of the electoral commission, where the opposition and rebel parties would also have seats. But the rebels are still unhappy, and on Wednesday began a meeting to decide whether they still had faith in Mbeki as a mediator and whether they would send representatives to sit on the elections body after all. "Even if everything came together on the political front this very moment though, there are still technical issues to deal with," the African diplomat said. For example, voter registers that were supposed to be published three months before election day have yet to be updated let alone displayed for citizens to check. A South African delegation headed to the rebel stronghold, Bouake, on Thursday to try to break the deadlock, and rebel leaders are expected to fly to Pretoria at the weekend to see Mbeki, diplomats said.

Meanwhile, the official line from the UN Mission in Cote d'Ivoire (ONUCI), which has more than 6,000 peacekeepers in the country, is that there is no alternative to the South African mediation or to October elections. No pretexts for blocking peace "We have complete confidence in President Mbeki. There should be absolutely no pretext for blocking the elections or the peace process," Pierre Schori, the UN special envoy, told reporters in South Africa this week. He reminded the Ivorian parties that the UN could impose individual sanctions on anyone obstructing peace. But some diplomats in Abidjan privately admit that sanctions are not a realistic option. "Sanctions have been talked about but it's not being seriously considered because we think that at this stage the problems are based on misunderstandings and if we bring sanctions into the equation we could derail the process completely," one Western diplomat said. Schori's message this week was that it was "important for the train to get moving", but outside of the legal wrangling, progress is proving equally arduous. The 20 August deadline for the dismantling of pro-Gbagbo militia forces will be missed. Three armed groups in the troubled west of the country, where ethnic violence regularly bubbles up, will only start handing in their weapons from 24 August according to ONUCI, and some observers are sceptical even about this. "It risks being just a show, an empty ceremony," one Western diplomat said. As far as disarmament behind rebel lines is concerned, diplomats agree that it will not happen as long as there is no agreement on Gbagbo's legal reforms. However, there is some flexibility in the disarmament timetable. The 40,500 rebel fighters were supposed to head into cantonment sites on 31 July, but the actual handing over of weapons was not due to begin until 26 September, a deadline which could theoretically still be met. Nonetheless many observers are doubtful that the rebels will relinquish their arms in the current climate of mistrust. "I think the problem with the rebels is that they only really have one card to play and it is a trump card," said Stephen Ellis, an Africa specialist at the University of Leiden. "I don't think anybody, including the rebels, really believes there's going to be an election on schedule. The international community is foundering." Some diplomats say the holding of credible elections should take priority over the timing. "We shouldn't get fixated on the date at the expense of the objective we want to achieve -- free, fair and transparent elections" the African diplomat said. "The important thing to is to avoid the country becoming unliveable." But as another Western diplomat points out, it is difficult to talk about postponing the election because that recommendation would, in theory, have to come from the Independent Electoral Commission, which has yet to get off the ground.