Think-tanks finds talks key to peaceful change

In a special report on the Zimbabwean crisis, the United States Institute of Peace said the best means of ensuring a peaceful political transition was a combination of increased international and domestic pressure on the government. The Washington-based institute said that although the idea of a national government of unity fell out of favour following the breakdown of talks between the government and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in April 2002, a poll conducted last year showed that the majority of Zimbabweans were in favour of this option as a way out of the political impasse. Since a unilateral solution to the political deadlock was increasingly impracticable, movement towards a transitional government or some form of power sharing has gained ground, the political think-tank found. This scenario could include joint parliamentary and presidential elections, as well as various constitutional amendments curtailing the powers of an executive presidency and changing electoral laws. But while media reports exploring this option have increased, so to have concerns about transparency and stakeholder participation by civil society organisations. The think-tank remarked that civil society groups were keen to negotiate their role in the transition process, aiming to ensure that they are not left out by the government and MDC initiatives. "Some are arguing that any mediation efforts and transition dialogue must formally include representatives of civil society to ensure the talks move beyond the narrow balance-of-power concerns of ZANU-PF and the MDC," the report noted. Human rights groups have also called on the international community and United Nations to investigate reports of rights abuses. News reports on Wednesday said the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum will approach the United Nations Commission on Human Rights to request it to second a special envoy. The institute also questioned the impact of further mass protest action, saying acts of civil disobedience alone were unlikely to result in political change given the government's control of the security apparatus. "While there is still a popular view that mass action may be a necessary condition for continued dialogue, there is perhaps even greater fear of violent government clampdown - particularly against students, who are at the forefront of any such action," the report said. Change from within ZANU-PF was more likely, given overtures last year by the chief of the armed forces General Vitalis Zvinavashe and Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa to the MDC. However, the MDC made public the overture, which controversially involved early retirement for President Robert Mugabe. Mnangagwa subsequently denied approaching the MDC. The institute commented that lack of consensus within ZANU-PF could make interparty talks less likely and "until the succession battle is resolved, the anti-Mnangagwa faction has a strong incentive to block talks mediated by South Africa or other regional powers". Should change come from within ZANU-PF, ruling party elites would seek protection from investigations into the acquisition of personal wealth, and from potential prosecution for human rights violations, the report stated. Despite recent hints by Mugabe that his party members should discuss the succession, the "lack of expressed interest suggests that Mugabe has not signalled sufficiently to his party members that he will step down any time soon". In the event of a president's resignation or death, the Zimbabwe constitution requires a fresh poll within 90 days. The study found that change via military involvement seemed to have the support of some within ZANU-PF in 2002, and would benefit the current elites in the country, since such a move was unlikely to bring about substantive policy change. However, recent events brought into question whether a military coup would indeed be successful. Deteriorating conditions of service and real wages have affected morale and created some degree of resentment and alienation in the lower levels of the military, but while these conditions were worth considering in view of a possible military coup, the report downplayed the possibility of collective action. "Divisions between the command and rank and file would be expressed in other ways - for example, by lower-ranking soldiers refusing to obey orders to attack unarmed demonstrators, or stop mass actions," the report said. The report concluded that a negotiated or mediated strategy held the strongest prospects for breaking the deadlock between the two parties, and charting non-violent change in Zimbabwe. To view the report visit: www.usip.org