Focus on the succession debate

President Robert Mugabe's call for open debate over his succession within the ruling ZANU-PF party has led to a spate of media reports suggesting that he could leave office before the expiry of his term in 2008. "It's not normal, in a country where the president still has five years to run, that everybody is publicly discussing his succession - something is happening," a Harare-based diplomat told IRIN. Mugabe, 79, who has ruled Zimbabwe for the past 23 years, is currently touring the provinces, meeting ZANU-PF supporters in what the media has described as a "lap of honour". During rallies last week, while calling on party leaders to end clandestine campaigning for his job, he also extolled the success of fast-track land reform, a programme he has elevated to the signature achievement of his government. "Mugabe has in the past prayed to God that he be given a longer life to ensure that land is returned to the black majority. That was his justification to remain in power. And even though I feel that the land reform has not even begun, he thinks otherwise, hence his repeated encouragement to people to discuss his succession," political analyst Shakespeare Maya told IRIN. Mugabe opened the door to public discussion of a new presidential candidate for ZANU-PF, a previously taboo subject in the party, in an April interview on state-run television to mark the country's 23rd independence anniversary. ZANU-PF information and publicity chief, Nathan Shamuyarira, reportedly confirmed that the president was sincere. Shamuyarira was quoted by the pro-opposition Daily News as saying the process to choose a successor would start in the provinces, move to the central committee and, finally, the party's supreme decision-making body, the politburo. TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENTS But pressure is increasing on Mugabe to quit well before 2008. The economy is in serious difficulty, with acute currency shortages, fuel, electricity and basic commodities. Inflation is threatening to shoot beyond 300 percent. A humanitarian crisis, driven partly by drought but also, according to UN agencies, the government's land reform programme and aspects of economic policy, has left more than half of the population in need of food aid. On the political front, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which is disputing the result of last year's presidential election in the courts, is planning anti-government street protests next week. The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions is reported to be considering collaborating with work stayaways. Panic buying has been reported as Zimbabweans stock up ahead of what the MDC has billed as "the final push", a week of street demonstrations which are illegal under the Public Order and Security Act. The authorities have warned they will crack down on any unlawful protest action, raising the prospect of violent political confrontation. Neighbouring countries, led by South Africa, have stepped up their encouragement of a political resolution to the country's crisis, which has reportedly focussed on a proposed "transitional arrangement" that includes the MDC, to run Zimbabwe until fresh polls can be organised. But Mugabe has refused to negotiate with the MDC until it withdraws its legal challenge over the 2002 election, while the opposition has demanded Mugabe's retirement and an end to political violence as the price for its participation. Some analysts suggest that with the military, police and the pro-government youth brigades under his control, Mugabe is in a far stronger position than generally appreciated, and can dictate the pace of events. These analysts maintain that change can only come from within ZANU-PF, rather than being imposed by the opposition. There has been much speculation about a "succession plan" in which Mugabe chooses his replacement, leaving office with dignity. Under this arrangement, the post of an executive prime minister would be created, with Mugabe possibly staying on as a titular head of state until general elections in 2005. Critics of this scenario argue it would mean the continuation of ZANU-PF rule, the party blamed in many quarters for the country's current crisis. CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM But whether change will come as part of a process controlled by ZANU-PF, or in a deal encompassing the opposition, attention has increasingly focussed on the need for constitutional reform. Should Mugabe quit before 2008, the constitution demands fresh elections within three months, a period considered too short by civil society groups to institute the kind of democratic reforms needed, they say, before a new election can be held. "The issue of the constitution is central in any exit plan. There is absolutely no way in which Zimbabwe should achieve leadership change without first overhauling the current constitution," Lovemore Madhuku, the leader of the anti-government National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) told IRIN. It was the NCA that helped mobilise public rejection of a government-approved constitutional reform proposal in 2000, which included the post of an executive prime minister. Mugabe accepted the "No" vote in the referendum and has since made it clear he is no hurry to come up with a new constitution. David Chimhini, a lawyer and human rights activist, has warned against a hurried exit arrangement, saying careful consideration should be made in drafting a new constitution which should serve to dilute the extensive powers currently held by the president. It should not be "owned" by any political party, but instead be "the product of popular participation by Zimbabweans". Ibbo Mandaza, publisher and ZANU-PF loyalist, who is reportedly leading a team of academics to explore workable strategies for Mugabe's eventual exit, also says constitutional reform is necessary. "Zimbabwe's 'road map' to 2005", when presidential and parliamentary elections are expected to be held, should "hinge on the centrality of constitutional reform and the need to put in place the attendant institutions". These institutions, Mandaza adds, must include independent commissions on human rights, the election process, gender and the media. However, at a briefing this week to ambassadors of G8 countries in Harare, MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai rejected the idea of a transitional arrangement. In an apparent hardening of the party's position, Tsvangirai stressed the MDC would "neither be part[y] to a dubious process that seeks to expand and sanitise ZANU-PF's illegitimate rule, nor will we accept a secondary role in any so-called transitional arrangement." Rather than a transitional government, the MDC's position was that the current constitution should be adhered to, should Mugabe announce his departure. "An interim/acting president, logically from the ruling party, would take over the office of the president, and the presidential polls shall be held within a period of 90 days to choose a new and substantive president. This is a cast-iron constitutional provision and there are no compelling reasons to deviate from it... The issue of a constitutional amendment to enable the formation of a so-called transitional government therefore does not arise," an MDC statement quoted Tsvangirai as saying. Brian Kagoro, a leader of the civil society-led Crisis in Zimbabwe Committee, said he was surprised by Tsvangirai's comments, which appeared to contradict the MDC's earlier stated position on the need for political reform prior to elections. "It's inconceivable that within three months [a caretaker government] could have a new voters' register, reconstitute the electoral institutions, repeal repressive laws and end political violence [all previously MDC demands]," Kagoro told IRIN. He added: "Looking at it positively, our hope is that [Tsvangirai's] statement is not cast in stone, and it was made just to heighten the stakes to make the Mugabe regime realise the opposition is not ready to come to the table without putting up a fight." FEAR OF ETHNIC DIVISION While the issue of the constitution is a sticking point, analysts also point out that Mugabe's early exit could depend on other factors, among them the president's own reservations and fears. One of his much-stated concerns is the possibility of a split in ZANU-PF along ethnic or factional lines. "If Mugabe is convinced that the party will fall apart, he might delay as much as possible his departure. He views himself as a figurehead that has managed to sustain an acceptable level of unity in the party," Maya noted. Zimbabwe is broadly comprised of two ethnic groups: the Ndebele, who make up around 17 percent of the population, and the majority Shona at 80 percent. It was not until the early 20th century that the peoples speaking several mutually intelligible languages were united under the Shona name. The six main language clusters are Korekore, Zeseru, Manyika, Ndau, Kalanga and Karanga. Ever since the Unity Accord of 1987, when ZANU-PF merged with its Ndebele-dominated rival ZAPU, the party has enjoyed relative stability. However, analysts allege, cracks are beginning to emerge as presidential candidates jockey for position. Should Mugabe resign, his two vice-presidents, Simon Muzenda and Joseph Msika, who are also in their 70s, would be expected to quit as well, political observers say. The next in line in the party pecking order is John Nkomo, ZANU-PF party chairman and cousin to veteran nationalist and ZAPU leader, Joshua Nkomo. However, Mugabe is widely believed to favour parliamentary speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa, a lawyer and former intelligence chief. Nkomo beat him in the ZANU-PF party chairmanship election in 1999, and Mnangagwa was nominated to parliament by Mugabe after he lost his seat in parliamentary elections in 2000. He ranks fifth in the party hierarchy. The military, which reportedly has a powerful voice within ZANU-PF, is not united behind a single candidate. Prominent names in the armed forces have thrown their weight behind different factions in the succession debate, analysts say.