IRIN Focus on recent instability

The violent unrest in Cote d'Ivoire on 19 September happened when the country had recorded some achievements towards national reconciliation, according to analysts. The government said the armed uprising was a failed coup attempt against President Laurent Gbagbo. It later launched an offensive to dislodge mutineering soldiers who took control of towns in central and northern regions. Sub-regional initiatives were also announced to try to ease tension with neighbours over their alleged support for the uprising. In one of these, the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) called a heads of state meeting for 5 October. Diplomats and humanitarian sources however told IRIN that apart from displacing thousands of people, the recent upheaval could heighten political, economic and ethnic tension, including widening the divide between mainly Muslim communities in the north and southern, largely Christian communities. Hundreds of shanty houses that were burnt down belonged to both Ivorians and immigrant. Aid workers fear that should instability continue, it could displace more people including immigrant workers from neighbouring Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Liberia. The country's 16 million people include 2.2 million Burkinabe, 800,000 Malians and 230,000 Guineans, according to government statistics. Demonstrations by pro-government youth in the country's commercial capital, Abidjan, on 25 September could also trigger counter-demonstrations in support of the main opposition leader, Alassane Ouattara, who sought refuge at the French embassy the day the coup started, diplomats fear. Ouattara had been quoted by Reuters news agency as saying that government troops had wanted to kill him in the wake of the uprising. Demonstrators demanded that the French embassy hand him over, and accused him of involvement. Ouattara, who strongly denied the accusation, had his own house - in the Cocody neighbourhood, where President Gbagbo lives - partially destroyed in unclear circumstances. "This coup attempt was most destabilising because, for the first time, Cote d'Ivoire's territorial integrity is at risk. Quantitatively and qualitatively, this was worse than the previous coups," Ouraga Obou, Dean of the Law School at the University of Abidjan, told IRIN. "The most important issue now is to solve the problem, then to heal the wounds," Obou added. Minister of Defence Moise Lida Kouassi said the coup attempt was led by former president General Robert Guei, who was killed on the day of the coup. Government said the weapons used were foreign to the Ivorian army and officials pointed fingers at a neighbouring northern country. That country was believed to be Burkina Faso, which was quick to deny involvement and to close its border. Global and regional implications Cote d'Ivoire produces 43 percent of the world's cocoa. In May, the International Cocoa Organisation reported that it was moving its headquarters to Abidjan. Global prices, which were already at a 15-year high, rose significantly in response to the unrest, sending jitters through the chocolate industry. Cote d'Ivoire is also one of France's most strategic political and economic partner in francophone Africa. Strong trade links exist between the two and 20,000 French citizens live in Cote d'Ivoire. Four days after the mutiny, France flew in troops to reinforce its 500-strong military presence and protect its nationals. The US too sent troops to evacuate American children. Continuing instability could lead to breakdown in law and order with humanitarian consequences including displacement of more people within the country and movement of refugees to Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea and Mali, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Cote d'Ivoire hosts 110,000 refugees mostly Liberians in the 'Zone d'Accueil des refugies' (ZAR) in the west, location of the towns of Danane, Tabou and Guiglo. Guei was born in this region and if local violence followed his death, it could fuel the movement of people, according to sources in the country. Humanitarian officials fear that an escalation of the current violence and political insecurity could lead to a movement of refugees from the ZAR into Nimba County in Liberia (which is currently experiencing a new bout of violence and instability), or to Guinea or other areas of Cote d'Ivoire including Abidjan. This could stretch the capacity of aid agencies in Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia and Guinea. The latter already hosts 60,000 Liberian refugees and 41,000 Sierra Leoneans, while Liberia hosts 26,000 Sierra Leoneans. UN agencies were planning an inter-agency assessment of the situation on the Cote d'Ivoire-Liberia border later this week, according to UN officials in Liberia. Cote d'Ivoire generally kept a low-profile in regional conflicts until 1989, when it supported then Liberian warlord Charles Taylor - now president of that country - in an attempt to topple President Samuel Doe. However, Taylor upon assuming the presidency, grew close to General Guei, to the chagrin of the Ivorian government. Guei's death, an analyst said, could lead to a further rift between the two neighbouring countries. Relations with some of Cote d'Ivoire's neighbours hit the rocks after 1999. In January 2001, the Ivorians pointed fingers at Burkinabe people when a coup attempt was foiled. Before that, the government had accused the Liberian government of allowing Guei to recruit mercenaries in Liberia, a claim which was denied. It had also accused "armed elements from the Malian territory" of perpetuating violence in the north. The accusations fed into into a wave of attacks against shop owners in Abidjan, who were targeted by vigilantes. Most affected were those from Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger. Following the 19 September uprising, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali closed their borders. Reports from Mali on 25 September said skirmishes had extended to the border town of Pogo. Residents fled into Mali, raising fears among relief workers that an influx into Mali could arise, should the situation continue. However, it is with Burkina Faso that relations have hit an all-time low, partly because of the Ivorian opposition leader Alassane Dramane Ouattara. The Ouattara factor. Ouattara - a former Prime Minister under the first president of Cote d'Ivoire, Felix Houphouet-Boigny, and former Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund - failed to contest for presidency in 2000 when the courts ruled that he could not prove that his parents were Ivorian. To be eligible for political office, according to the Ivorian constitution, candidates must be Ivorian nationals of Ivorian parentage and must never have held another nationality. Ouattara's opponents said his parents were from Burkina Faso and that he had used Burkinabe nationality in the past, statements that he denied. Ouatarra's party, the Rassemblement des republicains (RDR) boycotted presidential and parliamentary elections in 2000, heightening tension in Cote d'Ivoire. A group of associations from the north warned the government to resolve the situation or order the "repatriation" of southerners from 13 northern districts, including Ouattara's home area of Kong. Tension blows in uprising Initial reports which said last week's uprising was a mutiny within the army were later dismissed by government officials. "Our country is under attack by gunmen: professional terrorists recruited in neighbouring countries to kill, loot and ultimately, if they get their way, destabilise the state," said Speaker of Parliament, Mamadou Koulibaly. Tension had been building over the last two years, with rampant rumours of coup attempts. In June, Gbagbo declared: "For those saying there might be a coup, there will never be a coup in this country - not yesterday, not today, not tommorrow". Ethnic and religious division heightened following Cote d'Ivoire's first coup d'etat in 1999. Human rights groups reported abuses by security forces, targeting some people from the north, Ouattara's power base. That coup toppled President Henri Konan Bedie, leader of the Parti democratique de Cote d'Ivoire and swept Guei into office. Guei later called elections but the country was reeling from reports of attempted army mutinies, assassination and coup attempts, demonstrations against foreigners, electoral violence and arrests, human rights abuses, increased crime and generalised instability. Electoral violence broke out when Guei declared himself winner of presidential elections held in October 2000. However, he was forced from office by mass street demonstrations in Abidjan Gbagbo was then declared winner and officially sworn in as president on 26 October. However, the RDR demanded that the elections be cancelled and this was followed by clashes between pro- and anti-government supporters, and the security forces. At least 300 people died in the upheavals in October and December 2000, including 57 men whose bullet riddled bodies were discovered in a suburb of Abidjan. Human Rights Watch said gendarmes (police) killed them but eight gendarmes who were charged for the murder in a military court were later acquitted. A bastion of stability For over 30 years, Cote d'Ivoire had enjoyed a reputation as a bastion of stability and economic growth. Led by Houphouet-Boigny from independence to 1993, the economy grew by seven percent annually. By 1980, Cote d'Ivoire had the highest per capita income in West Africa at US $1,150. According to international analyst, Adekeye Adebajo, the country became "the indisputable leader of the francophone bloc in West Africa." However, the economic boom sowed the seeds of today's ethnic diversity, as Cote d'Ivoire attracted millions of workers from poorer neighbouring countries in search of jobs and economic opportunity. Its stability also meant that Cote d'Ivoire attracted refugees from other disturbed countries in the sub-region, including Liberians, Sierra Leoneans and Nigerians. Attempts at national reconciliation Gbagbo's government has made some determined attempts to build national reconciliation, diplomatic sources told IRIN. In 2001, it organised a national reconciliation forum to bring together representatives from political parties, civil society and academia, as well as Bedie, Guei, Ouattara and Gbagbo. RDR spokesman Aly Coulibaly told IRIN then that the forum was a stage in the process of reconciliation. "We think that the resolutions will bring peace," he added. Following the forum, events took a turn for the better. Political prisoners were released and local elections took place in March this year. The polls were generally fair but violence occured in some areas of the country. However, the apparent easing of tensions belied the undercurrents affecting the country's socio-political situation. And it was these undercurrents that appear to have erupted again on 19 September.