Focus on Burundi ceasefire talks

As the end of the second round of the Burundi ceasefire talks between the government and rebel groups approaches, mixed reports have emerged on progress - a continuing stalemate with a faction of one group, sustained negotiations with another, arrival of a third group, and the complete absence of a fourth. The complexity of the situation at the talks in the Tanzanian commercial capital, Dar es Salaam, is being underlined as the facilitators speak of progress being made with the faction of Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie-Force pour la defense de la democratie (CNDD-FDD) led by Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye, and the arrival of Alain Mugabarabona, an Force nationale de liberation (FNL) leader who claims to have taken control of the FNL. Analysts are warning that existing problems with the larger factions of each organisation - the continued stalemate between the Burundian government and Pierre Nkurunziza's faction of the CNDD-FDD and the complete absence of Agathon Rwasa, the FNL leader who maintains he is still in charge - threaten to undermine any agreement signed. "We are satisfied with the progress made by the two delegations thus far, and are optimistic that they will find common ground, for the sake of the future of Burundi," Jacob Zuma, the head of facilitation and South Africa's deputy president, said on Wednesday in reference to negotiations between the transitional government of Burundi and the FDD led by Ndayikengurukiye. Jerome Ndiho, the spokesman for Ndayikengurukiye's faction, echoed these sentiments, saying that discussions based on the draft ceasefire agreement were continuing in an atmosphere of seriousness and "with the spirit to go forward to make peace". Likewise, Berhanu Dinka, the special representative of the United Nations secretary-general, told IRIN that progress was being made, "to a certain extent". However, Pierre Nkurunziza's group, the larger of the two FDD factions, has not yet started discussing the ceasefire document with the Burundian government. The group appears to be in a quandary over what are being termed "technical issues", but what most observers take to mean over whom it should be negotiating with. Officials within Nkurunziza's faction told IRIN that they had given the facilitation team a "projet de declaration d'engagement" - a document that is supposed to help identify the "real belligerents" - and that they would negotiate with whoever responded to this document. The faction has maintained that, while it is a government delegation that is in Dar es Salaam, it is the Burundian army which wields "real power" and is thus in the position to implement any agreements signed. "Because of what has happened in the past, yes, there is a lack of trust. We are afraid that the army will sabotage what is agreed," Salvator Ntacomaza, a spokesman for the faction, told IRIN on Thursday. "We want the government to state publicly that there are no contradictions between themselves and the army, and [that] it is fully committed to any agreement [entered into] at the conclusion of the talks." Through Ambroise Niyonsaba, the head of the Burundian government delegation, the government said that since the facilitation team was is Dar es Salaam, it was up to it to decide who the real belligerents were, and that the government was ready to negotiate "with anybody, and without conditions". Meanwhile, an analyst close to the talks told IRIN on Thursday, that the arrival of Mugabarabona for the talks, and reports that the facilitation team recognises him as the "interim leader" of the FNL despite his "limited backing", was "very damaging" and likely to lead Agathon Rwasa to "turn his back on the negotiations, sever all contacts and increase hostilities". "This is the worst thing that could happen, because, without the main faction of the FNL, the war will not end," he said. Rwasa told the BBC on Wednesday that Mugabarabona was nothing more than "an impostor" who had no backing beyond his family. While the talks were continuing in Tanzania, the president of the UN Security Council, John Negroponte, urged the belligerents this week to "negotiate, in good faith, a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible" and to "respect international humanitarian law". However, with just three days of negotiations to go before Zuma returns to South Africa to attend the World Summit on Sustainable Development, it remains uncertain whether this round of talks will result in any concrete progress and how this will affect the regional summit on the Great Lakes, due to convene early in September.