Focus on Egyptian role in peace process

As the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army continue their second round of peace talks in Kenya this week, analysts agree that optimism for an agreement is warranted. With a consensus on the increasingly effective mediation partnership between Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) envoys from Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea and Ethiopia and a group of observer nations comprising the US, UK, Norway and Italy, a momentum seems to have developed which, it is hoped, could end Sudan's 19-year civil war. Speaking in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, last week, John Prendergast, Co-Director of the International Crisis Group's (ICG) Africa programme, told reporters that the talks represented the best chance for Sudanese peace since the 1989 coup that brought Sudanese President Umar Hasan al-Bashir to power. US Special Envoy for Peace in Sudan John Danforth told reporters in Nairobi on Monday that because of the "very, very strong support" for the peace process worldwide, and his own belief in the will of the relevant parties to successfully conclude the talks, he was optimistic for an agreement for the first time since being appointed to his post. US President George W. Bush was "very personally engaged" in Sudan, Danforth told reporters, and the international community had a common commitment to supporting peace in Sudan both now and in the future. Egypt's fears Yet neighbouring Egypt - which since 1999 has brokered a Libyan-Egyptian peace initiative prioritising national unity - is firmly opposed to the landmark Machakos Protocol, signed on 20 July, which provides for a possible secession of the south after a referendum in six years' time. Egypt fears that secession might lead to increased competition for the Nile waters, as well a more extreme Islamist government in the north, analysts say. In a joint press conference held on 1 August with Sudanese Information Minister Mahdi Ibrahim, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Mahir said that "Egypt stands firmly behind Sudan's unity", AFP reported. "Egypt supports this unity in the context of one country in which all people have their own rights and enjoy the fruits of national wealth," he went on to say, speaking on Egyptian President Husni Mubarak's behalf. On 31 July, Usamah al-Baz, an adviser to Mubarak, reiterated his government's opposition to partition. "Partitioning the country of Sudan into two parts would be a contagious phenomenon that would spread to surrounding countries on the basis of tribe, language, and religion," the state-run MENA news agency quoted him as saying, according to AFP. Accusations regarding US interests in the peace talks, and the exclusion of Egypt from them, have also appeared in Egyptian state-owned newspapers. "The major objective of the United States is to eliminate the Egyptian-Libyan influence and to abort their initiative and to separate the south of Sudan from the north on any basis," said a columnist, Salamah Ahmad Salamah, in the state-run Al-Ahram daily, AFP reported. "Egypt was completely excluded because of American pressure," he added. Notably, as recently as May 2002, Bashir and Mubarak, meeting in Cairo, discussed "reactivating the Egyptian-Libyan peace initiative" and "other efforts aimed at guaranteeing the national unity of Sudanese territory," AFP reported. On 15 August, Foreign Minister Mahir stressed that the Libyan-Egyptian initiative - which many regard as an attempt to undercut the IGAD process - was still "not out of date". Future plans The Sudanese presidential peace adviser, Ghazi Salah al-Din al-Atabani, has said that Khartoum will work to develop southern Sudan in order to preserve unity. "The government has plans for development projects in the south, and we will enter into a race against time... to modernise the south and preserve the unity of the country," AFP quoted him as telling the state-owned Al-Akhbar daily. "It would be important to discuss with the different Sudanese parties how to benefit from this initiative in a way to preserve Sudan's unity," he added. But despite such "encouragement", the likelihood remains that the southern Sudanese may well opt - presuming that Bashir's government is still in place in six years' time and that the referendum takes place as agreed - for secession, something that Egypt must be aware of, analysts say. ICG has warned that if Cairo's security fears are not allayed, it could become a spoiler. Mubarak could work with anti-Bashir elements in Khartoum to undermine or topple the president, and thus wreck the entire peace process, said Prendergast last week. For Egypt, "Sudan is foremost a national security issue. They have said that repeatedly because of the [Nile] water issue," he said. "Egypt could work to erode support for Machakos among members of the Arab League." "The US must get Egypt on board," he stressed, adding that high-level and personal diplomacy was required from Bush to achieve this. But despite having said that Sudanese peace was a priority, Prendergast noted, "President Bush has never made a phonecall specifically about Sudan". Danforth, however, dismissed the possibility of any interference from Egypt, saying that while it remained opposed to succession, it recognised that partition of Sudan was a possibility. "They're now dealing with the reality," he said. "I do not see Egypt as a spoiler. The government gave no indication of that when I was in Cairo."