IRIN Focus on leaders learning to move on//Yearender//

President Frederick Chiluba finally cast his vote on Thursday in a general election that will remove him from the presidency after 10 years in office. But it was not without a fight that he relinquished hopes earlier this year of a constitutional change that would allow him to stay in power. Had he got his way, Chiluba would be running for a third term in office. As it was, however, a groundswell of civic and political opposition stopped any thought of constitutional change in its tracks. In neighbouring Zimbabwe, citizens have not been so lucky, with the year ending in much the same way it began - President Robert Mugabe clinging violently to power, hoping to be re-elected in presidential polls next March. Facing his most serious political threat in 21 years, Mugabe has used militant supporters and allegedly the police to fight back against the main opposition group, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). But Zambia and Zimbabwe are not alone. The "succession debate" has raged throughout southern Africa this year as the region gears up to meet the challenges of globalisation and of entrenching its fragile young democracies. Perhaps as a sign of the pressure being brought to bear on them, most of the region's leaders have been forced this year into publicly stating their intention to respect their constitutions and to leave their offices in good time. In Angola, where Jose Eduardo dos Santos has been in power since 1979, the ruling MPLA is looking for a successor. Dos Santos announced a few months ago that he would not stand for re-election in the next poll. Before him, Mozambique's President Joaquim Chissano, Malawi's Bakili Muluzi and Namibia's Sam Nujoma said the same. But why does this issue come to the fore now, what does it say about democracy in southern Africa and why, in the first place, is this debate even taking place? Analysts say there are various reasons. According to Claude Kabemba, senior policy analyst at the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA), one thing is clear: "I think we are reaching a stage where the respect for the constitution and the laws of the country are going to be upheld. I say this because we knew the transition (from various colonial and dictatorial governments) to democracy was not going to be easy. The things we are seeing now, we expected. The pressure we have seen is not international only. This was important, but what we have seen is that countries have created some institutions which are ready to stand up and oppose anything against the rule of the law in the country. "The problem is when you have a party so dominant that it can change the constitution. There must be forces outside to counter that, like civil society for example. We've seen it (civil society opposition) in Zambia and in Malawi." Early this year, civil society in Zambia - including the church - rose in unison for the first time in 10 years, to oppose Chiluba's efforts to remain in power. The last time civil society was so organised and vocal was when Chiluba swept into power in 1991, after more than two decades of single party rule, promising to uphold human rights, to democratise the country and to curb the powers of the presidency. His efforts to hang on split Chiluba's ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), though, even as it spurred civil society into action. Many analysts say that one of Chiluba's motives for trying to remain in power - like other leaders in the region - was to escape prosecution for various alleged corrupt practices, including imprisoning opponents. Said Kabemba: "Chiluba, especially, was involved in some dirty politics, which put him in a situation that he is afraid that as soon as he is out of office people will try to bring him to justice for the wrongs he has done." This, Kabemba said, had resulted in Chiluba reorganising his party so he could still maintain control. In addition, the MMD has not yet decided what role Chiluba will play in the party. It is possible that he will still have enough power to influence an MMD presidency, but there is also a possibility that the MMD's power could be diluted in a coalition government. One of the factors that galvanised Zambians into action was the fact that the constitution had already been changed once by the Chiluba government - to effectively prevent former president Kenneth Kaunda from contesting the 1996 election. But the reasons for leaders hanging onto power differ. "I think one has to consider that the challenge for many African countries, not just southern Africa, is that there is a perception that when someone is in power, he is the best choice the country has," said Kabemba. Tomas Viera Mario, a journalist with vast experience in the region, told IRIN there were two major reasons for so many leaders wanting to remain in power. One, he said, was that the "fathers of independence" in the region and their political machineries had not been able to entertain the idea of being the "opposition". "They were convinced that theirs was a historical legitimacy," he said. The other was that they wanted to hang on as long as possible to accumulate wealth. In Malawi, according to Kabemba, reports that Muluzi wanted to try for re-election when his two-term limit expires in about two years, came as a surprise. "We did not think he would try to go for a third term of office. Obviously there are divisions in the party (the ruling United Democratic Front [UDF] came to power as a broad coalition of interests and parties), but this is to be found across southern Africa. The problem is with the leaders because they fail to bring discipline and to ensure succession in the party during their terms. They do this on purpose to create weak structures in the party and then be able to argue that exactly this (weak structures) is the problem," he said. While there were those arguing that Mugabe's ZANU-PF, and even President Sam Nujoma's SWAPO, have the same problems regarding new leadership and internal division, Kabemba said, "when you look closely you see these leaders have created these situations. Grooming leaders, it's just not happening". He said it could be argued that while Chiluba feared the many lawsuits he could face post-presidency, Mugabe and Nujoma wanted to ensure that they maintained their "father-figure" images. "They think that if they are taken out of power, it is going to take away the esteem people have for them. They want to be recognised until death as father figures of the nation and so on," according to Kabemba. According to Mario, the "succession" wave, possibly created by former South African President Nelson Mandela's graceful retirement in 1999, injected "some kind of new oxygen to the region". In keeping with the trend, President Joaquim Chissano, after much public speculation over the past year, announced earlier this month that he would not stand for re-election in 1994. His ruling FRELIMO party said the decision was a gesture of "great dignity and political wisdom". News reports at the time quoted party sources as saying that Chissano was advised to move on in light of rising crime and corruption in Mozambique. Transparency, good governance and poverty reduction have been at the top of the region's agenda this year - even if, as some critics argue, there has not been much progress. With the international donor community, the IMF and the World Bank demanding much greater accountability in exchange for aid or debt reduction in recent years, analysts believe that the region's leaders are finally realising that their actions are under close scrutiny. South African analyst Senzo Ngubane told IRIN earlier this year that such international pressure could not be underestimated. Taking this into account, said Mario, with the exception of Zambia, one of the main reasons that leaders felt more free to retire now was that they were more confident about their safety. "After almost 10 years of democratic change in the region a sound climate of confidence has been built with the help of the international community which has given a kind of assurance to leaders that they will be safe and are also saying to leaders that you have had time to maintain your standard of living," Mario said. With the state being the main source of wealth in Africa, he explained, many have gone into government for financial reasons. Nonetheless, even as southern Africa's leaders appear to have a change of heart about extending their terms, Kabemba told IRIN the real issue ought to be building democracy in the region. "We should not be worrying about the 'third term'. We should be putting institutions in place and protecting them, addressing the weaknesses in electoral systems. "One has to look at the constitutions and what they say. Some of these leaders have so much power they can do anything they want. They can nominate judges and create institutions etc. As soon as leaders put in place key people in key institutions and they answer to him, the ability to use this for personal interest is great," said Kabemba. Leaders, he said, were taking advantage of high levels of illiteracy and of poverty. "When you look at the will to do things, I think we have come a long way towards trying to change our constitutions, put in place laws and institutions, like watchdogs, to make sure power is not abused. However, they (these institutions) exist in many countries on paper, but in practice they do not work. We have moved forward in terms of putting forward legislation, even regional institutions are strong. but how effective are these institutions and that is southern Africa's challenge - the culture can continue if there are loopholes in the law."