Baidoa capture puts pressure on TFG

The fall of Baidoa in south-western Somalia to Al-Shabab, hours after Ethiopian troops left, raises fresh questions about the viability of the Somali government, a civil society analyst said.

Baidoa, seat of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), fell to the Islamist group on 26 January. A number of people were killed and injured and families displaced.

"The fall of Baidoa calls into question the viability of the TFG," the analyst said. "If they cannot defend the only town under their control, how can they hope to bring the rest of the country under their control?"

Baidoa fell as representatives of the TFG and a faction of the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, met in Djibouti to set up a new parliament and elect a president.

The two groups had in November reached a power-sharing deal to double the size of parliament from the current 275 members to 550 members. The meeting in Djibouti voted to seat the extra MPs, according to Abdirahman Abdishakur, the ARS chief negotiator.

The new MPs, he added, would be sworn in "within a day or two”, while the process of electing a new president would take "no more than a couple of days".

However, a civil society analyst, who requested anonymity because of the volatile situation, posed the question: "Where will the new parliament go?"

The capture of Baidoa would also "bring Mogadishu under new and sustained pressure", he said. "They may not be able to capture Mogadishu, but they will be able to apply pressure."

In the past, the insurgents have captured towns and later abandoned them, but the capture of Baidoa signalled their ability to take advantage of any vacuum and expand their sphere of influence, he said.

The Al-Shabab met little resistance as they entered the town, local residents said. "At around 4:30pm local time yesterday, Al-Shabab forces entered and captured Baidao from the TFG. There was some resistance but not much," Ali, a local resident, told IRIN.

Looting

Another local, who requested anonymity, said the group, which was camping on the outskirts of town, had entered after talks with community leaders and stopped looting.

"There was looting of the presidential compound and two other places but that came to an end as soon they came in," he said. "There has been minimum displacement."

A local journalist told IRIN the group captured but later released senior government officials, including transport minister Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade and Aden Saransoor, another former warlord and deputy director of the central bank.

"They have all left for Wajid where they are expected to fly out of the country," he added.

Baidoa had been one of the few towns in the country completely controlled by the government and its Ethiopian allies, and therefore spared the violence witnessed daily in the capital, Mogadishu.

Somalia has been hard hit by a combination of conflict, drought and hyperinflation, creating a humanitarian crisis.

An estimated 3.5 million people need assistance while more than 16,000 civilians have been killed in the conflict between the Ethiopian-backed government and insurgents over the past two years.

ah/mw