Ministerial decisions could bring change, say analysts

Decisions made by the Arab League Council of Ministers in Beirut on Monday could yield serious changes in Lebanon, should the UN Security Council amend a draft resolution set to be voted on within hours, say analysts. Observers point out that the decision to deploy Lebanese army troops to the country’s south could be used to exercise a degree of leverage over the council. “The decision to deploy 15,000 [Lebanese] troops in the south is definitely positive,” said veteran journalist at Lebanese daily As-Safir George Aalam. He added that the move would directly address US anxieties regarding the potential creation of a power vacuum in the case of an immediate Israeli withdrawal. “The United States would do well to accept amendments to the draft resolution in view of the decision,” said Aalam. The draft, drawn up by permanent Security Council members France and the US, has been widely viewed in Lebanon as being biased towards Israel. The draft proposes that the Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon continues until the deployment of UN troops to the area. In addition, the draft demands a “cessation of hostilities” rather than a ceasefire. A cessation of hostilities is a call for parties to the conflict to immediately stop fighting to allow space for humanitarian, political and diplomatic initiatives. A ceasefire goes further than this by requiring a longer political process with the aim of coming to some form of agreement between respective parties and possibly others. Immediately after the foreign ministers’ meeting, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa departed for New York to address the Security Council, along with Shaikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Shaikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabber Al Thani, foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, respectively. The UAE is the current chair of the Arab League Ministerial Council, while Qatar is presently a temporary UN Security Council member. Many observers, however, express scepticism as to the efficacy of the Arab ministers’ council. “No doubt, the Arab ministers have the potential to influence the permanent members of the Security Council to amend the draft,” said Charles Harb, a political science lecturer at the American University of Beirut. “The question is, do they really want to? I don't think so.” On 7 August, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora told reporters that there was full agreement within the council for a quick political solution to the crisis, in which almost 1,000 Lebanese have been killed and up to one million displaced so far, according to the Lebanese Higher Relief Council. Harb, however, disputed this. “The Syrians and the Saudis are in disagreement over how to deal with the Lebanese question,” he said, adding that the Arab League had long since lost its credibility on the Arab street. “There are too many contradictions and disagreements within the council of ministers for real action to take place,” he said. The crisis began on 12 July when Israel began launching strikes against targets in Lebanon in response to the capture of two Israeli soldiers by the armed wing of Lebanese political party Hezbollah. Analysts agree that, should the current UN draft resolution be passed without amendment, the humanitarian situation will continue to deteriorate as Israel's bombing of civilian infrastructure goes unchecked by the international community. “We’re waiting and hoping that the amendments will be made,” said Aalam. SA/AR/AM