Fears that poor harvest, high prices could lead to food crisis

Poor cereal harvests and a substantial increase in the prices of basic food commodities, particularly sorghum, have led to fears of a potential food crisis in different parts of Sudan this year, UN officials said. "The conditions of poor households in much of Sudan may be worse than was initially assessed in November when WFP prepared its emergency operations, targeting a total of on average 5.5 million people in 2005," Peter Smerdon, senior spokesperson for the World Food Programme (WFP), told IRIN on Wednesday. An analysis of the 2004 rainfall and vegetation, using rainfall estimates and satellite and ground measurements, which was released on Tuesday in Geneva, concluded that, overall, 2004 was characterised by inadequate rainfall in most parts of the country, with the exception of southwestern Sudan. "According to our analysis, Gedaref [in eastern Sudan] - the major sorghum producing region for Sudan - registered crop failure or very poor yields," Smerdon said. "The seasonal rainfall was 50-70 percent of the 2003 amount in greater Darfur [in western Sudan], in North Kordofan [in central Sudan] it was just less than 50 percent of the 2004 amount, and in Gezira, western parts of Gedaref and Kassala [in eastern Sudan], it was nearly 60 percent of the 2003 amount," Smerdon added. The analysis found that the lack of rainfall in North Darfur had led to extensive crop failure, while both of the northernmost regions of West and South Darfur had also experienced poor or failed crops. In drought-prone and chronically food-insecure areas, malnutrition rates are traditionally high, the report noted. Even a slight disturbance, such as increased food prices could have a ripple effect that might push large numbers of people over the edge and put their lives at risk, according to the report. The shortage of cereals has driven prices to new highs, the report observed. The price of sorghum nearly doubled between January 2004 and January 2005. With the hunger season in April and May approaching, WFP was particularly concerned because many of the seriously affected areas were already in drought-prone, food-insecure and chronically malnourished regions. "The reality is that as of this week, the 2005 operation for south and east Sudan, totalling [US] $301 million, is less than 10 percent funded," Smerdon said. "Ideally, warehouses would now have stocks we could tap, asking donors to replenish for later," he added. "But those warehouses are empty." The funding situation for Darfur, projected at $438 million in 2005, was not quite as bleak. The cereal needs for 2005 were 90 percent covered, Smerdon estimated, but pledges for other food items, required to provide a balanced diet, were severely inadequate. "Without the full-food ration, the health of those in need is being put at risk," he warned. WFP urged donors to contribute funds to the operations immediately to allow for the purchase and delivery of assistance ahead of the hunger season. Although the analysis of the rainfall and vegetation growth did not depict a deteriorating situation in the southeastern region of Bahr el Ghazal, anecdotal reports indicated a potentially strained food security situation there compounded by significant returns of internally displaced persons from the north. Following the rainfall and vegetation analysis, humanitarian agencies were planning additional field missions to the affected areas to confirm the number of people in need and provide an overview of coping mechanisms being used to determine how much food aid was required in 2005.