Darfur talks kick off in Abuja on Monday, what will they achieve?

Africa will once more attempt to find its own political solution to the crisis in Darfur on Monday when the Sudanese government sits down for talks with two rebel groups in the Nigerian capital Abuja. The summit, called by Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo in his capacity as chairman of the African Union (AU), comes as the clock ticks down for Khartoum to prove to the United Nations that it has taken concrete steps to disarm the Janjawid militia and restore security to Darfur. The UN Security Council passed a resolution on 30 July, giving Sudanese authorities 30 days to comply or face as yet unspecified political or economic sanctions. For some political analysts, like John Prendergast of the International Crisis Group, Abuja is set to be a toothless affair because the African Union has no stick to wield over the Sudanese government. "The Abuja talks do not yet have the leverage necessary to bring the government to the point of seriously discussing power-sharing or to encourage the rebels to negotiate seriously with a government that doesn't implement anything it agrees to," Prendergast told IRIN by telephone from Washington. "What will affect Khartoum's calculations is action by the Security Council, saying 'We have given you long enough... so now we are going to have to start introducing measures," he added. The Nigerian government is striking a more upbeat note ahead of the summit. "The situation in Darfur must not be allowed to continue, Something decisive must be done by Africa and every effort will be made to ensure an acceptable peace agreement is reached," presidential spokeswoman Oluremi Oyo told IRIN in Abuja. The official Libyan press agency Jana reported on Thursday that Libyan leader Muamar Gaddafi had been invited to attend the Abuja talks. Libya has allowed the World Food Programme (WFP) to open a new route to truck food thousands of kilometres across the Sahara desert to starving Darfuris, a lifeline during the rainy season when traditional routes through Chad become impassable. Gaddafi may also act as a bridge between the Arab world, which has mainly sympathised with Khartoum in the Darfur conflict, and the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, who have generally taken the side of the black villagers in Darfur who have been driven from their homes by militia raids and aerial bombings. During his three decades in power, the Libyan leader has tried to carve a prominent role for himself as both an Arab and a Pan-African statesman. Libya last week hosted informal talks with the Sudanese factions. More success than at Addis Ababa? The AU's last attempt to get the Sudanese government and the two rebel groups, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) talking was not a success. Negotiations collapsed before any substantive discussion had even begun in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa in mid-July. The rebels, who say they are fighting for a better economic and political deal for Darfur, demanded the removal of government troops and Janjawid militias from Darfur as a precondition to political dialogue; a demand which the government said was totally unrealistic. But Obasanjo's official spokeswoman said Nigeria was not expecting such problems to recur when the Abuja talks open on Monday. "We expect them (the rebels) to respect whatever mutual decisions are arrived at in the meeting rather than insisting on their own conditions only. By merely agreeing to come for the talks, we believe that they are ready to give and take during negotiations," Oyo said. "The president's major concern is dealing seriously with the issue of disarmament, which we believe will help the peace process," she added. Khartoum and the rebels in Darfur agreed to a humanitarian ceasefire at talks in N'djamena in April hosted by Chadian President Idriss Deby. However, since then the conflict has smouldered on regardless, with each side blaming the other for almost daily truce violations. The free access to Darfur for humanitarian organisations, agreed in N'djamena has also failed to materialise fully. Until recently the Sudanese government failed to allow relief agencies full access to the camps of internally displaced people in Darfur and aid organisations complained of rebels detaining their staff and looting their supplies. New York-based organisation, Human Rights Watch, called on Obasanjo to make the protection of civilians the priority at Monday's talks. The Sudanese government has been widely accused of using the Janjawid, an Arab militia mounted on horses and camels, to attack black African farmers in Darfur and drive them from their villages. The UN estimates some 1.5 million people have been made homeless by the conflict including 200,000 that have fled as refugees to neighbouring Chad. "Civilians in Darfur urgently need and deserve protection right now, and the African Union should give its troops a clear mandate to protect civilians from abuses," Peter Takirambudde, head of the group's Africa division, said in a statement on Friday. Sudan has expressed strong reservations about the AU’s plans to deploy a full-scale peacekeeping force in Darfur with a mandate to protect civilians as well as AU ceasefire monitors, but it has not rejected the proposal outright So far Rwanda has sent 155 military personnel to Darfur to protect ceasefire monitors sent to Darfur following the truce agreed in April. Nigeria is standing by to deploy another 120 soldiers to join this small AU force, which has no mandate to protect Sudanese civilians caught up in the conflict. This week, the Nigerian Senate approved plans to deploy a total of 1,500 troops if required but Obasanjo's spokeswoman was tight-lipped about whether the extra personnel would actually be sent to Sudan. "The issue of more troops will depend on the situation in Darfur," she said.